Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 7 was another eventful one for the rookie crop. Chase Claypool and CeeDee Lamb each seemingly took the week off, but there were plenty of other big rookie performances to enjoy. Brandon Aiyuk, Antonio Gibson and James Robinson all reached 100 scrimmage yards in week 7, bringing the total of 100-yard days for the rookies to 23 divvied up between 12 different players. Justin Herbert finished the week as the QB1 and Joe Burrow as the QB4 in the best week of the season for either of them. Clyde Edwards-Helaire found the end zone of the first time since week 1, Harrison Bryant found it twice, and Albert Okwuegbunam became the first rookie tight end to reach 60 receiving yards in a game this year. The rookies certainly have more in store for us in week 8, so let’s dive in and look at what to expect…
(Note: All fantasy point totals and rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. All players under same header at same position are listed in order I would play them this week.)
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Rookies to Start:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ten.): Joe Burrow has had the Browns’ number this season in spite of the Bengals’ 0-2 record against Cleveland this year. Over the two games Burrow totaled over 700 yards and 6 scores through the air, and another 53 and a TD on the ground. Since week 2, Burrow has thrown for over 300 yards against every opponent he’s faced except the Ravens, and the Titans aren’t a daunting matchup. Tennessee has given up the 10th-most QB points per game despite facing the 11th-easiest QB schedule. They’ve allowed each of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced to throw for 250+ yards and multiple TDs, and I’d expect the Bengals’ QB to have a great chance to extend that streak to 6. Burrow is in play for 1-QB leagues this week.
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 8:@DEN): Herbert is coming off a monster game in week 7, his best fantasy game of the year, but the matchup this week isn’t quite as easy. I’d still view him as a low-end QB1 for week 8. He’s thrown for at least 260 yards each game this season and has accounted for 11 total TDs in the last 3 weeks. Denver has only allowed 2 QBs to throw for 250 yards against them, and has given up just 1 passing TD total in the last 3 games, but they’ve proven to be vulnerable to QB runs. Sam Darnold ran for 84 yards and a score against them in week 4, and Cam Newton ran for 76 and a TD in week 6. Herbert showed what he can do running the ball last week with 66 yards and a TD on the ground. That rushing ability should give him enough cushion to withstand it if he doesn’t have a ceiling passing game. View Herbert as a very strong QB2 or upside low-end QB1.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 8:@DET): Taylor benefitted in his last couple games from a banged up Jordan Wilkins, and while Wilkins may be healthier this week the matchup with Detroit is good enough for Taylor to be a locked-in RB2 even if he cedes some carries to Wilkins. Detroit allows the 5th-most RB points per game, the Colts are favored by a field goal, and Taylor is coming off his most productive receiving game since week 1. Taylor is a safe bet to make a run at 100 scrimmage yards for the second game in a row, and given the Colts’ implied total of 26.5 he’s a pretty good bet to find the end zone as well.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): I can’t say for sure if Edwards-Helaire has felt the pressure from the Chiefs’ signing of Le’Veon Bell, but his play over the last two weeks has looked like that of a man that doesn’t want to lose his job. In Bell’s debut, CEH had to split work with the veteran addition, and had to give way to DeAndre Washington in the 2nd half with the game well in hand, but he still managed to finish as the RB15 for the week. This week’s matchup with the Jets has as lopsided of an NFL betting line as I’ve ever seen, with Kansas City favored by an absurd 19.5 points. It’s possible CEH and Bell are watching from the sideline down the stretch again, but you can’t sit Clyde in this game. The Jets have allowed the 8th-most RB points per game, and CEH is the lead half of the RB committee in a game where the Chiefs implied total is 34 points. There is a great chance that Edwards-Helaire gets in the end zone in this one, and he should be locked into your lineup if you have him.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 8:@GB): Over the last month or so Jefferson has made a clear case that his upside is just too much to leave on your bench. He’s topped 100 yards in 3 of his last 4 games, and 160 in two of them. He did square off with the Packers in week 1 without much success (2-26 on 3 targets), but that was with no preseason, and he had yet to unseat Bisi Johnson for the WR2 role. Adam Thielen is likely to draw shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander, which could be a boost for Jefferson. Alexander has struggled with Adam Thielen in past meetings, including coughing up 6-110-2 on 8 targets in week 1, but Jaire has been much better since then. The Vikings are a 6-point underdog, so game script should keep them throwing. Jefferson should be a solid WR2 this week.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 8:@SEA): The 49ers just cannot keep their offensive weapons healthy this season. Last Sunday it was Deebo Samuel and Jeffrey Wilson who went down, and Aiyuk stands to benefit from it this week. The Seahawks have allowed the most WR points per game in the league, and rank 30th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. He’ll be the default WR1 in this game. The 49ers have a reputation of throwing most of their passes within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, and Aiyuk can excel in that short passing game, but the average pass thrown to Aiyuk has been over 11 yards downfield. The 49ers will have to score to keep pace with Seattle, and that probably means 7+ targets for the rookie. He’s going to be a safe WR3 in all formats this week.
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Borderline Rookies:

RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 8:@SEA): Pretty soon the 49ers should just start putting the words “next man up” on the back of their running back jerseys rather than a name. They’ve seen Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and now Jeffrey Wilson all go down with injuries this year, and every time someone goes down, they seem to have a dynamic back ready to step in and take over. It appears to be Hasty’s turn to be that back. He’s looked great on the opportunities he’s gotten in the last two weeks, totaling 94 yards on 18 carries. The Seahawks have been a solid run defense ranking 8th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 12th-fewest points per game to the position, but they struggled to contain Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, and Chase Edmonds in their last 2 games. The absence of run-stuffing safety Jamal Adams has started to be a problem. Adams’ status is still up in the air this week. If he plays it would be a slight downgrade for Hasty, but he should be in line for 15+ carries and a few targets as well. Jerick McKinnon will mix in a bit as well but look for Hasty to be the lead back. He should be a reasonable RB2 option this week depending on what your lineup looks like.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Ind.): Swift managed to find the end zone for the second straight week last Sunday, but the touchdown was the highlight of an otherwise pedestrian fantasy day. There were some positives to take away though. It was the second straight week where Swift led the backfield in snaps, and he’s also seen almost as many carries as Adrian Peterson in those two weeks. He’s also now seen 4+ targets in 5 of 6 games for the season. He gets a tough matchup this week with the Colts, who allow the 5th-fewest running back points per game, so you should temper expectations a little bit. I still think Swift has shown enough that he will continue to see the most snaps and touches in this backfield and is a viable flex option this week even in a difficult matchup.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. NE): Moss played in almost an even split of the backfield snaps with Devin Singletary in week 7, and if that timeshare continues he could be a sneaky upside option in week 8. The Patriots can be run on. They rank just 25th in run defense DVOA and have allowed at least 1 running back in each of their last 5 games to reach 60+ rushing yards and 80+ scrimmage yards. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite in this game, so game script should remain at least neutral for them. I like Moss’s chances of getting 10+ carries and, I think he’s the more likely bet than Singletary if the Pats are going to extend their streak to 6 games of 60+ and 80+. I view him as an upside RB3/flex option.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Mark Ingram left the Ravens’ week 6 game with an injury heading into the bye week, and he’s still not practicing this week as of Thursday. That means Dobbins and Gus Edwards are likely to split the backfield work on Sunday. The two saw an almost dead-even split of the snaps in week 6, with Dobbins handling 9 carries and 4 targets while Edwards handled 14 and 1. Dobbins had more rushing yards on his 9 attempts than Edwards had on 14. This week’s matchup with Pittsburgh is a difficult one. The Steelers rank 1st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-fewest points to the position, so it could be a bit of an uphill fight to a strong fantasy day. If you had to choose one of the two to play this week, I would go with Dobbins. He’s clearly the more explosive back, and he’s posted 3 plays of 30+ yards on just 36 touches this season. I’d view him as a contrarian DFS play at $4,600 in DraftKings and a flex option in deeper leagues.
RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 8:@DEN): Kelley seemed to move ahead of Justin Jackson in the Chargers’ backfield pecking order, but this will remain a fluid situation moving forward. Kelley out-snapped Jackson 38-to-31 and handled 17 touches to Jackson’s 10 against the Jaguars. The matchup this week is much tougher against a Denver defense that allows the 3rd-fewest RB points per game. The Broncos have allowed just 2 backs to reach 10+ fantasy points in their last 4 games, and James White had to catch 8 passes to accomplish the feat. Given that the work will be split between Kelley and Jackson, I’d only be considering Kelley if you’re desperate here. There is some upside if he further takes over the early-down work and widens the playing time gap with Jackson, but it could just as easily go the other direction as well.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ten.): I would lean towards playing Higgins if I have him, but the re-emergence of AJ Green has made him a bit more of a volatile play. Higgins saved his day with a 4th-quarter touchdown last week, but the 5 targets he saw come his way were the fewest he’s seen since week 1. Tennessee has been carved up by opposing wide receivers, allowing the 4th-most points per game to the position, but it’s Tyler Boyd who will have the easiest matchup in this one again slot corner Chris Jackson. Jackson is a 7th-round rookie who has been forced into a starting role and has a 29.9 coverage grade (scale from 0-100) from Pro Football Focus. Higgins still has easy starter upside in a game that could be a shootout, but there is some downside if he doesn’t get in the end zone.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 8:@CLE): If there was ever a week where Ruggs is going to look like a good option, it’s this one. He faces a Cleveland defense that has surrendered the 2nd-most WR points per game and ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA. The only thing holding him back is his lack of volume. Ruggs hasn’t seen more than 3 targets come his way in a game since week 1, but he didn’t let that stop him from going for 118 yards and a score against the Chiefs two weeks ago. At some point the Raiders have to give their number 1 receiver more opportunities. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week, and the matchup makes me a little more inclined to take a chance on this being a boom week. He’s a very interesting option for DFS tournaments at $4,900 on DraftKings.
WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 8:@CHI): If you’re considering Callaway, you’ll need to monitor the status of Michael Thomas ahead of this game. If Thomas plays, Callaway would move to the ‘Rookies to Sit’ portion of the column. If Thomas is out, Callaway becomes an intriguing PPR WR3 option with Emmanuel Sanders also still sidelined battling a symptomatic case of Covid-19. Thomas did return to practice on Thursday, but his status is still up in the air. Callaway has played more than 65% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two weeks, and in those games he has averaged 8 targets, 6 catches, and 54.5 yards. The Bears are a stingy defense against WRs, allowing the 4th-fewest points per game to the position, but Drew Brees has a way of finding his guys. I think he would finish not too far off what he did last week if Thomas is out again.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): When Courtland Sutton went down for the year, it was assumed it would be Jeudy who would step into a WR1 role for the Broncos, but that hasn’t been the case so far. Tim Patrick has cemented himself into that role instead with Jeudy serving as more of a secondary option. The rookie has just 13 targets over the last 3 games, and has turned them into 6 catches for 113 yards and a TD. This week’s opponent, the Chargers, allow the 10th-fewest WR points per game. With Jeudy spending a lot of time in the slot, he should at least avoid the toughest Charger CB Casey Heyward. It’ll be Patrick who draws that matchup, but this game won’t be a picnic for Jeudy. He should still see a handful of targets, but he’s not an option you should be relying on unless forced to in a deeper league.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 8:@PHI): Week 7 was a sobering reminder of just how low Lamb’s floor will be without Dak Prescott under center. This isn’t going to be the dynamic passing game it was early in the season, and Lamb will need volume to return productive games. Lamb gets the best matchup of the Dallas WRs, facing off with slot corner Cre’Von LeBlanc while Amari Cooper is likely to be shadowed by Darius Slay, but with Ben DiNucci under center you should be dropping expectations pretty low. Philly gives up the 12th-most WR points per game, but Lamb is no more than a floor PPR flex play this week.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 8:@LV): Bryant made the most of Austin Hooper’s appendectomy last weekend by getting into the end zone twice against the Bengals. He played 77% of the offensive snaps and looks like the #1 tight end as long as Hooper is out. The Raiders haven’t been especially giving to tight ends, allowing the 14th-fewest TE points per game, but in the last 2 games they’ve allowed Travis Kelce to put up 8-108-1 and Gronk to put up 5-62-1. They also are pretty bad as a pass defense in general, ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA. Bryant should be an enticing TE streaming option as the lead TE in an offense that likes to utilize the position and has an implied total of more than 28 points this week. Another top-10 TE finish wouldn’t be a surprise.
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Rookies to Sit:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 8: vs. LAR): Tua will make his first career start on Sunday, and it comes in a less than ideal matchup. The Rams have allowed the 6th-fewest QB points per game, and any defense that boasts Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey isn’t a great one to make your first start against. There is some upside here. The Rams have allowed Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh Allen to each throw for 3+ TDs and 250+ yards against them, and Tua is in the same realm talent-wise as Burrow and Herbert. There are easier matchups coming for Tua. I’d leave him sidelined this week unless you’re desperate in a 2-QB or Superflex league.
QB Ben DiNucci, DAL (Wk. 8:@PHI): I’d avoid DiNucci unless he is the only available option for you. He had a sterling senior season at James Madison in 2019, but he was mediocre at Pitt before that. The NFL is a huge jump in competition level, and we’ve seen over the last couple weeks that the Dallas o-line is a mess right now. There are a couple positives for the rookie. He does have an arsenal of weapons at his disposal, he has the wheels to escape the inevitable heat he’ll feel in the pocket (he averaged over 500 yards rushing per season in 2 years at JMU), and Philly isn’t a fearsome QB defense. Philly has allowed the 16th-most QB points per game despite facing the 2nd-easiest QB schedule in the league so far. Despite all that, I expect DiNucci to look like a deer in the headlights at times and wouldn’t trust him in any fantasy formats this week. If Dallas had any way to avoid playing him, they would take it.
RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 8:@KC): Perine has been playing as the lead back for the Jets for a couple weeks now, out-snapping Frank Gore 81-to-41, but Gore is getting more of the opportunities. Gore has 22 carries and 4 targets in those games, and Perine has 18 carries and 6 targets. The Chiefs are as heavy a favorite as you’ll ever see in an NFL game, so the Jets may have to abandon the run fairly early on. There is a chance that Perine gets some receiving work in garbage time, but with the Jets implied total of 14.5, this is an offense to avoid for the most part (especially the running backs). You could roll Perine out there if you’re desperate, but you’ll be better off looking for a higher upside option.
RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Dallas may be forced into a prominent role this week with Chris Carson likely out and Travis Homer banged up as well. If both sit this week, Carlos Hyde will serve as the early down back and Dallas will work as the third-down guy and receiving back. This isn’t the best matchup to roll out a guy who will serve mainly as a receiving back. The 49ers haven’t allowed any running back this year to get to 4 receptions, and only two backs have reached 20 receiving yards against them. Dallas played 12 snaps last week and handled zero rushing attempts. That won’t lead him to a productive fantasy game this week.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 8:@MIA): Until we see Akers start to play more, there’s no way to justify putting him in your lineup. He’s been on the field for just 4 snaps in the last two weeks. Akers would need an injury ahead of him or a blowout on the scoreboard to get into the game. The Dolphins do rank dead last in run defense DVOA, but they excel in pass defense and should at a minimum stay in the game.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Aaron Jones probably returns this week, but even if he doesn’t Dillon touched the ball just 5 times last week with Jones out. Jamaal Williams worked as the clear lead back. It does seem silly that the Packers used a second-round pick on Dillon but are so unwilling to put him on the field. Minnesota is a middle-of-the-pack run defense, but even if this were a great matchup Dillon doesn’t play enough to be trusted.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 8:@BAL): What a change a couple weeks have made for Claypool. Two weeks ago he was the talk of the league after a 4-touchdown breakout game. Last Sunday he saw just one target and finished the day with negative yards. He’s bound to be better than that this week. The Steelers won’t hold anything back against the Ravens, and Claypool has been one of the best playmakers on the team. I’m sure there will be a few shot plays drawn up for the rookie, but with Diontae Johnson back on the field Claypool basically functions as a part-time WR3. In his 3 healthy games, Johnson has averaged nearly 13 targets per game (31% target share). In those 3 games, Claypool has averaged 2 targets. You should steer clear unless you’re desperate this week. Diontae did get a little banged up at the end of the Titans’ game. It sounds like he should be fine, but if he is unexpectedly out Claypool becomes a high upside WR3.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Peoples-Jones made a spectacular game-winning TD catch last Sunday after Odell Beckham exited with what turned out to be a torn ACL. It was an exciting moment for the rookie, and may be the first truly big catch he’s made since high school or earlier. He’s always had tantalizing potential but was never a consistent performer at Michigan. Some people expect DPJ to assume a bigger role in the offense with Beckham out, but I would pump the brakes at least a little bit. Rashard Higgins is the guy who becomes an immediate starter, and Cleveland uses their 2-tight end set as a base formation. There will be more playing time for DPJ, but that will probably mean he’ll be playing 40-50% of the offensive snaps going forward. Vegas is a burnable pass defense, ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA, but if I’m taking a shot on a Browns wide receiver this week Peoples-Jones is third in line behind Jarvis Landry and Higgins. Jones should be rostered in deeper leagues in case he does emerge though.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. NE): Davis was a full-time player in week 7 with John Brown out, playing 95% of the offensive snaps, but it didn’t translate into fantasy production. He posted just 1 catch for 11 yards on 3 targets. Brown is practicing in full this week as of Wednesday, and it’s hard to envision Davis being a better play when he goes back to playing less than 50% of the snaps against a talented New England secondary.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Duvernay’s snap share increased for 4 consecutive weeks heading into the team’s bye, but some of that can be attributed to Miles Boykin being banged up. Boykin should be back to full strength after a week off. Duvernay has averaged 7 PPR points per game in the last two games, but Pittsburgh ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA and isn’t really a matchup to target for Duvernay.
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Rookies on Byes in Week 8: RB James Robinson, JAX, RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, WR Laviska Shenault, JAX, WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS
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Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 8:@NYG): Tampa enters week 8 as a 10.5-point favorite, and for now it seems that Vaughn has moved into the RB3 spot on the depth chart behind Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette. If this game stays close, Vaughn won’t play much. He didn’t play much in a blowout win a week ago against the Raiders, but Tampa led by just 4 with 8 minutes to go and pulled away down the stretch. If they get up earlier in this one, I’d expect Vaughn to get some extended run. The Giants allow the 10th-most RB points per game. Vaughn is worth a look as a minimum priced option for DFS limited slate tournaments.
RB Jason Huntley, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): With Dallas looking at Ben DiNucci starting at QB, the rout could be on for Philly. Since it became clear that DiNucci would start, the line has moved almost a touchdown in Philly’s favor. The Eagles are now a 9-point favorite. That could mean a lot of opportunity in the second half for Huntley and Corey Clement. Huntley has the burners to break a long touchdown, and Dallas is tied for the most 20+ yard runs (9) and 40+ yard runs (3) allowed this season. He’s no more than a dart throw for a limited slate DFS tournament or the deepest of leagues, but the opportunity is there for a strong game out of Huntley.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 8:@KC): Mims walked into a much bigger role in his first game than I expected, turning 7 targets into 4-42. He was barely used at all in the 2nd half of the game, but the entire Jets’ offense called it a day at halftime anyway. This week they have a VERY low projected total at just 14.5 points, and they should be throwing a ton in a very negative game script. Breshad Perriman looks like he’ll be out this week, and Jamison Crowder could be as well. Mims will be the de facto WR1 if both guys miss this game. The Chiefs are a tough WR matchup, allowing the 5th-fewest points per game to the position, but the ball has to go somewhere. Mims costs little more than the minimum on DraftKings, and you could make a case for starting him if you need a fill-in in a deep league. It’s easy to envision him topping the production he put up in his debut, but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a TD in this one.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 8:@NYG): Tyler Johnson has had a nice stretch over the past 3 weeks, with 60 yards or a touchdown in each game, and he gets a fortuitous opportunity this week. Antonio Brown will be ready to go for week 9, so this may be the last chance he gets as a rookie to make his mark, and Chris Godwin will miss Sunday’s game with a broken finger. The last time Godwin missed a game, Johnson played 79% of the snaps and finished with 4 catches for 61 yards on 6 targets. The Giants have allowed the 11th-most WR points per game and rank 27th in pass defense DVOA. Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski are certainly ahead of Johnson in the target pecking order this week, but Johnson might legitimately be #3. He’s a fill-in option in really deep leagues, and in-play for DFS tournaments at just $3,500 on DraftKings.
WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): While Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy are dealing with Casey Heyward and Desmond King respectively, Hamler will get to face off with Michael Davis. Davis has allowed the highest QB rating against, and the most yards per target into his coverage of any of the Chargers starting corners. In the 3 games he’s played, Hamler has averaged 5 targets and 1 rushing attempt, and could see a couple extra opportunities come his way with the tougher individual matchups for Patrick and Jeudy. KJ has enough speed to break a long TD, and he may be worth a DFS dart throw at just $3,600 on DraftKings.
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Reagor is back at practice this week and seems likely to be activated for week 8’s matchup with the Cowboys. I don’t think this is an ideal week to get him into your fantasy lineups, but if he’s available on the wire in a deeper league, he’s a guy you should target. The Eagles are light on offensive weapons right now outside of Travis Fulgham, and Reagor can be a game breaker. The matchup this week is a good one on paper, with Dallas allowing the 6th-most WR points per game, but this one could be over by halftime with Dallas starting an unheralded rookie QB. If you want to wager that Jalen makes an impact while the game is still competitive, the best place to do that would be in a DFS tournament. Reagor costs just $3,600 on DraftKings this week.
TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): Okwuegbunam didn’t play a single snap in the first 4 games of the season, but he’s announced his presence in a big way over the last two weeks. He’s an athletic weapon who clearly still has good chemistry with his college QB Drew Lock. Albert has played just 52 snaps in the last two weeks, and had the ball come his way on 13 of them. Noah Fant returned from injury last week, and the rookie still saw 7 targets and caught every one of them for 60 yards. This is a guy who shouldn’t be on your dynasty waiver wire, and would make for an intriguing dart throw this week in DFS tournaments at just $2,800 on DraftKings. The Chargers allow the 12th-most TE points per game.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. NO): Kmet has largely been an afterthought for fantasy players this season, serving as the Bears TE3 behind Jimmy Graham and Demetrius Harris. Kmet’s still not a guy you can trust in season-long lineups, but it appears he may have pulled even with Harris on the depth chart, playing more snaps than the veteran for the first time this season last Monday. In the first 4 games of the season, Kmet was targeted just 3 times and turned them into 1 catch for 12 yards. He finally broke through with a touchdown in week 6, but I chalked it up to a fluke. He followed that up with another 2 catches for 45 yards in week 7. I know those aren’t ‘startable’ fantasy numbers, but he is heading in the right direction and the Saints have allowed the 2nd-most TE points per game this year. New Orleans has given up 30+ yard catches to little-used tight ends Foster Moreau and Jesse James this season, and let Marcedes Lewis in the end zone as well. Kmet will cost the minimum on DraftKings, and if there was any week to take a chance on Kmet having a surprisingly good game, this is the one to do it. The possible absence of Allen Robinson would free up some targets, and a couple of those could find their way to Cole.
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That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you don’t start anyone who ends up inactive. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. Original article from drinkfive.com.

As the 2020 NFL regular season roars towards the finish line, so, too, do the majority of fantasy football redraft leagues. If you made the championship round, congratulations! If not, there’s always next year, and for now, there’s always DFS sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. These sites allow you to construct a brand-new roster each time, acquiring players at different salaries and keeping your team under a hard cap. In order to achieve DFS success, you must pinpoint under-the-radar value plays and sleepers so you can afford weekly studs in other roster slots. That’s where RotoQL comes in -- we provide detailed rankings of each NFL players’ DFS prices, values, stat projections, floors, and ceilings. I then compile a detailed list of our favorite under-the-radar value players, and we provide it to you free of charge via this weekly column. If you checked in last week, you would have benefited greatly from our advice to make the following DFS roster picks (all Week 15 prices and fantasy points via DraftKings): QB Jalen Hurts ($5,900): 40.8 fantasy pointsQB Philip Rivers ($5,900): 17RB D’Andre Swift ($6,400): 23.2RB JKDobbins ($5,900): 15.1WR Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300): 22.3WR: T.Y. Hilton ($5,500): 11.1Arizona D/ST ($2,900): 10These players (and Arizona’s D) all vastly outperformed their price tiers, with some even leading their positions for the week. By finding such great values at modest costs, DFS managers afforded themselves studs like Derrick Henry and Calvin Ridley in other roster spots.MORE WEEK 16 DFS: Best stacks|Lineup BuilderYou can read Week 16 previews and fantasy prediction articles 24/7onBetQL, find out which side the pros are betting on their NFL expert picks dashboard, follow all the NFL public betting data, and build DraftKings lineupson RotoQL.Let's break down ourtop Week 16 DFS value plays, and you can get an idea of why 100,000DFSplayers trustRotoQLto build lineups. We constantly monitor pricingand provide the most up-to-date insight and analysis to maximize your lineup success.Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today!WEEK 16 DFS TOURNAMENT LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuelNFL DFS Picks Week 16: QB sleepers, valuesJalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (DK: $7,000 | FD: $8,200)Coach Doug Pederson probably secretly wishes he had turned to Hurts earlier this season, as the rookie phenom has been explosive in his two starts for Philly. He posted 23.3 fantasy points in Week 14 against the Saintsand a whopping 40.8 in Arizona last week. Now he gets a dome game in Dallasagainst one of the more disappointing defenses of 2020. RotoQL projects Hurts to score 21.8 fantasy points against the Cowboys this weekendwith a40.8-pointceiling. Fire the rookie up with confidence.Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (DK: $6,100 | FD: $7,600)Mayfield has morphed into a sensational playmaker this season. Six days after nearly leading the Browns over the Ravens on Monday Night Football with 366 total yards and three scores, the third-year QB went 27-of-32 for 297 yards and two TDs against a good Giants defense in a 20-6 spanking. After Pittsburgh choked against the Bengals on Monday, the AFC North is very much in play for the Browns. Expect a huge statistical game for Mayfield against the lowly Jets, who rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacksand have allowed three passing TDs per game over the past three weeks.Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,200)Clearly the Bears should have kept Trubisky under center the whole season, as he’s now 5-2 as a starter in 2020. He may not be the future in Chicago but he’s definitely the present, and there’s no better gift to a QB than a sunny late-December meeting with the Jaguars. Jacksonville serves up the second-most fantasy points to QBsand has surrendered five passing TDs in the past two games.Stocking Stuffer SpecialAndy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (DK: $5,500 | FD: $6,900)Dalton finally looks comfortable under center in Dallas, and he’s quietly averaged about 17 fantasy points over his past five games. Kyler Murray just put up 406 passing yards and three TDs against Philly’s secondary, so we like Red Rifle in this crucial home game against the Cowboys’ division rivals.Saturday Slate Standouts:Kyler Murray, Cardinals; Tom Brady, Buccaneers; Derek Carr, RaidersWEEK 16 DFS CASH LINEUPS: DraftKings |FanDuelWeek 16 DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, valuesDavid Johnson, Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $6,100 | FD: $6,700)After missing a handful of contests to a concussion and COVID-19 (not the kind of alliteration you want), DJ exploded for 133 all-purpose yards in Indianapolis last weekend. He caught all 11 of his targets, serving as Deshaun Watson’s security blanket against a tough Colts front seven. The Bengals looked pretty darn good against the Steelers last weekend, but they still allow 128.6 rushing yards per game (seventh worst in the NFL). Johnson should grab at least 60 yards on the groundand maybe another 50 through the air. RotoQL projects him to score 15.8 fantasy points this weekend, which would equal enormous value at these prices.JKDobbins, Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants (DK: $6,200 | FD: $6,300)Dobbins has been one of the best offensive rookies in the second half of the 2020 season, and he’s averaged 14 fantasy points overthe past four weeks. The Giants have a good secondary, but their front seven has been vulnerable to good running games. The Ravens are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL, and Dobbins has emerged as their best back. Expect another double-digit points performance from the talented rookie this weekend.Le'Veon Bell, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons (DK: $5,800 | FD: $6,400)After standout rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered a high-ankle sprain and hip strain in a gruesome-looking play Sunday, Bell is now the true bell-cow in KC. The veteran has done it all for the Chiefs lately, and he logged 76 scrimmage yards and a score in their big 32-29 win over the Saints. The Falcons D has been better as of late, but it’s still susceptible to big-play guys in high-flying offenses. Leonard Fournette just scored two TDs in Atlanta last week, and it’s a good bet that Bell can fall in the end zone at least once this week.Stocking Stuffer SpecialChase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (DK: $4,600 | FD: $6,400)I’ve been one of the loudest critics of Kenyan Drake this season, and I maintain that Edmonds is a better fantasy player (and RB in general) than Drake. Edmonds touched the ball 14 times in Arizona’s big win over Philly last week, netting 66 yards and a touchdown (15.6 PPR points). Meanwhile, Drake managed just 40 yards on 12 touchesand appeared banged up throughout the game. RotoQL projects Edmonds at 10 PPR points with a 38-point ceiling on Saturday.Saturday Slate Standouts:D’Andre Swift, Lions; Salvon Ahmed, DolphinsWEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerFanDuel, DraftKings Picks Week 16: WR sleepers, valuesBrandin Cooks, Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $6,200 | FD: $7,000)Cooks missed one game after suffering a concussion against Indy in Week 13, but he returned to face the same Colts last weekend. He recorded six receptions on seven targets for 59 yards inhis fourth consecutive game with at least 11.9 PPR points. Cincinnatihas a much weaker secondary than Indy, so expect the volume to translate into more points production for Cooks this weekend. He’s Deshaun Watson’s A-1 ever since Will Fuller’s suspension, and he’s well worth these price tags.Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (DK: $4,700 | FD: $5,900)Bengals veteran wideout Tyler Boyd (concussion) got banged up in the upset win over the Steelers last week, so the rookie could be in for a huge volume boost from third-string QB Ryan Finley. The Texans’ pass defense has been abysmal this season, ranking 23rd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. He's a volatile play, but Higgins could come with a huge reward at a low cost.Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons (DK: 5,000 | FD: $5,400)Watkins has had a tough 2020, but Patrick Mahomes has increasingly involved the veteran wideout in the past few weeks. He has 22 targets since returning from injury in Week 12, and he’s caught four passes in three of those four games. He logged 60 receiving yards against a dynamic Saints secondary last week, so 80 yards and a score seem attainable at home against the last-ranked Falcons passing defense.Stocking Stuffer SpecialAllen Lazard, Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans (DK: $4,200 | FD: $5,700)Lazard has been heating up as of late, making up for the time he lost to core muscle surgery. Only two teams give up more fantasy points to wide receivers than Tennessee, so some of the volume should go his way this weekend.Saturday Slate Standouts:Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers; Mike Evans, Buccaneers; Marvin Jones, LionsWEEK 16 STANDARD RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerWeek 16 NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, valuesMark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,000)The high-flying Ravens are back just in time for a playoff push, and Andrews has been one of the main catalysts. The 6-5, 256-pound veteran has averaged 17 fantasy points over his past three contests, and he remains one of the more trustworthy targets in the NFL on third down and in the red zone. Unlike the majority of tight ends, Andrews has a massive ceiling and a decent floor. The Giants have allowed tight ends to find paydirt in each of their past two games, and Andrews has caught nine-of-13 red-zone targets this season (with two TDs in the past three games), so getting the Pro Bowler at $5,700 is an early Christmas gift.Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team vs. Carolina Panthers (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,000)A perfect storm of factors went into this recommendation. The veteran journeyman has enjoyed a breakout season, with 62 receptions and five touchdowns. He’s coming off his best volume game of the season, having caught 13-of-15 targets for 101 yards against the Seahawks. And this week he lines up against the Panthers defense, one of the worst units in the league and the eighth-most generous fantasy D to tight ends. Thomas has caught 32 of his 35 targets over the past four games, so you might want to hop aboard Thomas the Tank before DFS sites start to catch on.Stocking Stuffer Special:Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (DK: $3,500 | FD: $5,100)Hooper came back last week from a one-game absence due to a neck injury, and he posted 15.1 fantasy points in the Browns’ win over the Giants. Now he gets to face off with the other Big Apple team, the lowly Jets, who serve as the most generous defense to tight ends. It’s been a tough year for Hooper -- emergency appendectomy, neck ailments, etc. -- but this game should prove to be a much-needed stat-padder for the two-time Pro Bowler.Saturday Slate Standouts:Darren Waller, Raiders; Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers; Jordan Reed, 49ersBetQL, RotoQL’s sister product, simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day and meaningful team trends.Check it out here!Week 16 NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepersWashington Football Team vs. Carolina Panthers (DK: $3,000 | FD: $4,800) The team with no name sure has one hell of a defense. WFT has emerged as one of the more dominant squads in football, and it’s coming off a tough 20-15 loss to the Seahawks. Newsflash: Carolina sans-Christian McCaffrey comes nowhere near the offensive ability of Seattle. I think the Panthers struggle in D.C. this weekend, and Washington logs at least 11 fantasy points for the fifth time this season.Saturday Slate Standouts:Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions; Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 2020 NFL regular season has come to a close, and now things really start to get fun in DFS. With every game a nationally televised, must-win affair, these are the times when fantasy football studs truly distinguish themselves on the field, and as always, it’s imperative to pinpoint the sleepers and under-the-radar value plays on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. By attaining valuable production at discount prices at one position, managers afford themselves proven weekly commodities in other roster spots. My job, all 17 regular-season weeks and now into the postseason, is to scan the vast projections of RotoQL and pick my favorite sleepers and value picks. If you checked this column out last week, you would have benefited from our advice to plug in the following players (all Week 17 prices and fantasy points production via DraftKings): QB Kirk Cousins, MIN ($7,700): 40.3 fantasy pointsQB Derek Carr, LV ($5,700): 24.9QB Drew Brees, NO ($5,900): 20.04RB Melvin Gordon, DEN ($5,700): 21.0RB D'Andre Swift, DET ($6,300): 16.0RB Nyheim Hines, IND ($4,900): 12.7WR Marvin Jones Jr., DET ($5,100): 38.0WR Russell Gage, ATL ($5,100): 25.2WR Keke Coutee, HOU ($5,600): 15.0WR T.Y. Hilton, IND ($5,800): 13.7These players all vastly outperformed their price tiers, with some even leading their positions for the week. By finding such great values at modest costs, DFS managers afforded themselves studs like Tom Brady, A.J. Brown, and Jonathan Taylor in other roster spots.MORE WILD CARDDFS: Lineup BuilderYou can read wild-card weekendpreviews and fantasy prediction articles 24/7onBetQL, find out which side the pros are betting on their NFL expert picks dashboard, follow all the NFL public betting data, and build DraftKings lineupson RotoQL.Let's break down ourtop Week 17 DFS value plays, and you can get an idea of why 100,000DFSplayers trustRotoQLto build lineups. We constantly monitor pricingand provide the most up-to-date insight and analysis to maximize your lineup success.Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today!Wild Card NFL DFS Picks: QB sleepers, valuesRyan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens (DK: $6,600 | FD: $8,200)It sure feels tempting to go with the quarterback on the other side of this matchupgiven how Lamar Jackson has seemingly returned to his superstar form, but the glaring price differential between the 2019 Comeback Player of the Year and the '19 MVP probably won't be coupled with a substantial disparity in production. Tannehill put up 28.4 fantasy points against Houston in Week 17, and he almost hit Black Jack when these teams met in Baltimore back in Week 11. He's the safest bet with the highest ceiling in this price range.Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,800)It's safe to say Brees has fully recovered from his punctured lung and 11 broken ribsjust in time for a tough opening-round matchup with a solid Bears D. The 42-year-old future Hall-of-Fame QB has eclipsed 20 fantasy points in two of the past three weeks, and he scored 19.6 against the Bears in Chicago on Nov. 1. The upside may be limited with Brees against Khalil Mack and company, but you won't find a better floor for under $6K DK/$8K FD.Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (DK: $6,100 | FD: $7,500)Remember when the Steelers were 11-0? After a nightmarish second half of the regular season, you can acquire most of Pittsburgh's skill-position players at discount rates. With Big Ben's penchant for turning the heat up in the playoffsand the fact that Cleveland ranks just 25th in fantasy points allowed toQBs, RotoQL's model really likes the the veteran signal-caller. Pittsburgh certainly won't be running its way to the second round.Wild Card DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, valuesJKDobbins, Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (DK: $6,600 | FD: $6,800)From Week 11 on, Dobbins has been one of the better offensive talents, never mind rookies, in the NFL. He averaged 13.6 PPR points in Baltimore's five games between Nov. 22 and Dec. 27, then exploded for 28 points in the Ravens' thrashing of the Bengals last week. Tennessee ranks 26th against RBs in fantasy, so it's surprising to see the Ohio State product priced under $7,000.Jonathan Taylor (DK: $7,900 | FD: $8,800) and Nyheim Hines (DK: $4,700 | FD: $5,600), Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo BillsObviously, the top Colts back you want this week will be Taylor, who ran roughshod over the Jaguars last week with 253 yards and two scores. Taylor finished his debut regular season with 1,169 rushing yards and 12 total TDs (not to mention 36 catches on 39 targets for 299 yards). Grabbing Hines in one RB spot might afford you JT in the other, forming an Indy stack against a vulnerable Bills run defense. Buffalo ranks 22nd against RBs in fantasyand surrendered 140 ground yards in two of its past three games. Hines has been the security blanket for veteran Colts QB Philip Rivers, and there should be plenty of dump-offs and screens in Buffalo on Saturday. There's no shame in picking two members of the same backfield.Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (DK: $6,700 | FD: $7,700)Since Chubb returned from injury in Week 10, he has been one of the most impactful running backs in football. He has averaged 17.6 PPR points per game in that spanand put up 16.8 last week against these very Steelers. The second-year back seems matchup-proof at this point, and he's well worth these prices.Wild Card FanDuel, DraftKings Picks: WR sleepers, valuesMarquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (DK: $5,400 | FD: $6,300)‘Hollywood’ Brown had a brutal first half of the season, directly correlated with Lamar Jackson’s early struggles in his MVP encore, but the second-year wideout has finished strong, scoring six receiving touchdowns in Baltimore’s final six games. He averaged 15.9 PPR points in that spanand will likely continue his torrid pace against a lowly Titans secondary that gave up the second-most fantasy points to receivers this season. RotoQL projects Brown to score 12.5 pointsbut lists his ceiling at 33.7. Go Hollywood on your opponents and grab the dazzling speedster.Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (DK: $5,200 | FD: $6,100)The antithesis of Brown, Claypool had an incredible first half but turned into a Lost Boy after Week 12. Big Ben backup Mason Rudolph must have traveled to Neverland to retrieve the rookie receiverbecause they connected on five catches for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Browns in Week 17. The Steelers get to play Cleveland again this week, but this time Roethlisberger will be back under center. Claypool caught all four of his targets when he and the veteran QB first played the Browns this season back in Week 6, and he finished with 81 total yards and a score. There’s a very good chance he finds paydirt for a third time against the Browns, so $5,200 seems like a great investment opportunity.Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts (DK: $4,000 | FD: $5,000)Another promising rookie, Davis has formed a good connection with MVP candidate Josh Allen. His catch count and total yards from scrimmage may not turn heads, but his red-zone and per-catch numbers paint a more promising picture. He has a 15.4-percent red-zone target share, and has hauled in seven touchdowns in 12 red-zone opportunities (58 percent). He also averages 17.1 yards per catch, which ranks fourth in the NFL. The Colts have a strong secondary (and defensive unit in general), but things could get dicey if Indy cornerback Rock Ya-Sin misses a second straight game due to concussion. Veteran CBs Xavier Rhodes and Kenny Moore would likely be stuck with the unenviable tasks of covering Stefon Diggs and John “Blur” Brown. If Davis gets open for a long one, the third-year stud QB will find him, just like Buffalo QBs didfor 107 yards and a TD last week.Wild Card NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, valuesLogan Thomas, Washington Football Team vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,400)The breakout tight end has made the most of his three nationally televised games this season. He caught all four targets in a win over Dallas on Thanksgiving. One week later, he grabbed all nine targets for 98 yards in a Monday evening upset over Pittsburgh. Last Sunday night, he grabbed three passesfor 37 yards in a playoff-clinching win over the Eagles. He scored a touchdown in all three of those prime-time games, and he’s caught 20 combined passes in his past two home games. I would be surprised if Thomas registered anything less than 50 yards and a score against Tampa Bay, who rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Side note: Grab this dude in your fantasy drafts next season!Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears (DK: $4,600 | FD: $5,900)Cook has quietly been the Saints’ most dependable receiver since Week 13, with 15 receptions on 23 targets for 219 yards and three touchdowns. He caught five-of-seven targets for 51 yards and a score when these teams first met in Chicago back in Week 8, and he should be busy again this week at home. He has a 10.9 PPR average over the past five games, and RotoQL lists his projected ceiling at 23.4 points. Cook at $4,600 looks like an absolute steal. BetQL, RotoQL’s sister product, simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day and meaningful team trends.Check it out here!Wild Card NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepersSeattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams (DK: $2,700 | FD: $3,600)Color me shocked that DFS sites list Seattle in the bottom-half of the 12-team slate this wild-card weekend. The Seahawks have been a legitimate defense since their midseason acquisition of pass-rusher Carlos Dunlap, and they have logged nine or more fantasy points in five of the past six weeks. These teams just met in Week 16, and Seattle held LA to 216 passing yards and nine total points with Jared Goff. Now the Rams might be stuck starting John Wolford, who listed his LinkedIn industry as “Finance” up until his start in Goff’s place last week. It’s a great story --and Wolford did get the Rams the win last week -- but he will surely make mistakes in a playoff game in Seattle if Goff still doesn’t get the thumbs-up. This is a layup of a value pick, in my humble opinion.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re at the quarter turn of the season (assuming the coronavirus doesn’t derail things), and the rookie picture is starting to come clearer. Each week we’ll have a better idea of what normal expectations will look like for the rookie crop. We were treated to some dazzling rookie performances from the wide receivers in week 4, from CeeDee Lamb’s 2 touchdowns, to Brandon Aiyuk’s acrobatic hurdle, to Justin Jefferson’s second straight 100-yard game. There have been plenty of intriguing rookie wideouts this season. Many of them are listed as borderline options this week, so please keep in mind that all players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. I also want to mention that anywhere that you see fantasy points allowed referenced, it’s based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 5…
Editor's Note: this article was originally posted before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football - enjoy a very thorough preview of rookie fantasy production for Week 5. Cheers!

Rookies to Start:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): If you drafted Edwards-Helaire in the first round of your fantasy draft, the last few weeks probably haven’t been what you were hoping for from him. After a breakout debut, CEH hasn’t found his way back to the end zone and has finished outside of the top-20 running backs in 2 out of 3 weeks. Do not despair. Edwards-Helaire has still averaged 20 touches per game in the last 3 weeks and seen a larger share of the running back touches each week. He’s also through the toughest part of his schedule and hasn’t finished lower than the RB26 in PPR scoring formats. This week he gets his easiest matchup to-date. The Raiders have allowed more fantasy points to the running back position than any team in the league and they rank 30th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. This week will be a great opportunity for a big game out of CEH. He should be worth his price tag in DFS formats and has top-5 RB upside this week in a great matchup. If you can find an impatient fantasy player who is upset by Edwards-Helaire’s start, I would recommend sending a trade offer. His value is about to go up.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 5: @ HOU): Most people had no idea who James Robinson was before he took the starting gig in Jacksonville, but he has definitely taken the job and run with it. He’s the RB6 for the season and has posted an impressive 40 receiving yards per game. This week he gets to square off with a Texans’ defense allowing the 4th-most RB points per game and ranking 29th in run defense DVOA. The Texans actually haven’t given up much receiving production to opposing backs, allowing just 3.3 catches (T-2nd fewest) and 25.5 receiving yards (6th-fewest) to the position per game, but a lot of that can be explained by the fact that Houston has mostly played from behind and their opponents have been able to lean on the run game. Houston’s opponents have been trailing on the scoreboard for just 24% of their offensive plays. This week the Texans are actually favored by 6, so if they get ahead, I’d expect Robinson to eclipse those receiving averages that Houston has been allowing to RBS. They’re also a bad enough run defense that Robinson will make some hay on the ground as well. He’s a locked-in RB2 this week.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 5 vs. NYG): The Cowboys have been one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league so far, and Lamb has been the clear #2 receiver in the target pecking order. There has been an obvious effort to get the ball into Amari Cooper’s hands this season as he’s averaged nearly 13 targets per game (on pace for 200(!) targets), but Lamb has been seeing a healthy 7 targets per game himself. There’s bound to be a week at some point where Michael Gallup gets the squeaky wheel treatment and the team forces him some targets, but Dallas throws so much I don’t think that will have much impact on Lamb when it happens. This week Dallas faces the Giants, who have been allowing the 13th-most points per game to WRs. The one functional part of their pass defense has been James Bradbury, who has limited Robert Woods and Allen Robinson each to less than 40 yards this season, and this week will be shadowing Amari Cooper. That should help get Lamb a little more work this week. Lamb should be a safe WR2/3 this week with Dallas’s implied total sitting at a robust 31.75 points.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 5: @ SEA): Jefferson’s seems to have fully vanquished Bisi Johnson and taken over the #2 receiver role in Minnesota with his breakout performances over the last two weeks. Jefferson played mostly in the slot in college at LSU, so it seemed like early production wouldn’t be easy to come by in an offense that has 3+ receivers on the field for just 44% of their snaps, but over the last two weeks, Jefferson has made it clear he can thrive as a perimeter receiver. This passing game still runs through Adam Thielen, but this week the Vikings are going to have to be able to put up some points if they want to keep pace with the Seahawks explosive offense. Minnesota is a 7-point underdog this week, but still has an implied total of 25.25 points. I’d expect them to try to run the ball when they can to keep the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands, and they may have some success there with box safety Jamal Adams sidelined, but there should be plenty of passing volume for Jefferson to be a safe WR3 with upside this week. No team has coughed up more fantasy points to opposing WRs than the Seahawks so far. He should be a bargain at his $5,500 DraftKings price tag.
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Borderline Rookies:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 5: @ NO): Herbert finally got the nod from the coach as the full-time starter with Tyrod Taylor recovered from his chest injury, and it would’ve been coaching malpractice if he hadn’t. Herbert has thrown for at least 290 yards every week and kept his team in every game he’s played. They’re 0-3 in his starts but are yet to lose by more than 1 score. New Orleans’ best cornerback Marshon Lattimore is questionable for this week, and this Saints’ defense has allowed multiple TD passes and at least 21 fantasy points to every QB they’ve faced so far. Herbert has shown himself to be a solid QB2 option, and he’ll have a nice upside for more this week if the Saints are without Lattimore. As a TD underdog, Herbert should again be throwing a fair amount.
QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 5: @ BAL): Burrow’s matchup this week sounds daunting on paper, but the Ravens haven’t been a death sentence for QBs so far this season. Baltimore has allowed 275+ passing yards in 3 straight games including more than 300 to Dwayne Haskins last weekend. Burrow has topped 300 yards in each of the last 3 weeks, and the Ravens secondary is a bit banged up with Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith both missing some practice time this week. It’s still a talented secondary, and Burrow will have an uphill battle to go over 300 for the 4th-straight week, but he’s not a bad QB2 option this week. The Bengals will likely have to throw often as a 13-point underdog.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 5: @ CLE): Obviously most people with Taylor on their rosters are going to be starting him this week, but I wanted to single him out as someone who shouldn’t be a slam-dunk start this week. We knew when Marlon Mack went down that Nyheim Hines was still going to be heavily involved in this offense, especially in any weeks where the Colts play from behind. What we didn’t know was how big a role Jordan Wilkins was going to play. Wilkins has had at least 9 carries in each of the last 3 games and has taken a chunk out of Taylor’s weekly ceiling. The rookie has still handled a sizable workload, but as we saw last week, if he doesn’t get in the end zone he will have a hard time finishing as a top-20 back for the week. Cleveland isn’t a great matchup for opposing backs. Ezekiel Elliott is the only back to reach 50 rushing yards against them. Several backs have had success catching the ball out of the backfield against the Browns, but Taylor has been targeted just 4 times in the last 3 weeks. You can’t count on passing game usage. I think Taylor projects as a flex option this week that needs to get in the end zone to return real value to your lineup.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. LAR): Gibson has been making the most of his opportunities each week, but at some point, you’d like the see the Football Team give him more of them. Peyton Barber has been pushed to the bench, but JD McKissic continues to out-snap him each week. Gibson is averaging 16 PPR points per game over the last 3 weeks and has found the end zone each week, but he’d have RB1 upside if he was unleashed in a workhorse role. The Rams have been a beatable run defense, ranking 28th in run defense DVOA, but it’s hard to consider Gibson an auto-start while playing just half the snaps. He should be a safe flex play this week, and his price tag of $5,000 on DraftKings makes him an interesting bargain option this week.
RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 5: @ NO): Austin Ekeler’s trip to IR should be good news for Josh Kelley’s fantasy outlook, but he fumbled in a crucial spot in each of the last two games and it’s opened the door for the now healthy Justin Jackson to work his way into the mix. Kelley played 30 snaps to Jackson’s 21 last week, and I’d expect a similar split going forward unless Kelley can stop fumbling and can separate himself from Jackson on the field. New Orleans has been one of the tougher run defenses in the league, ranking 4th in run defense DVOA, so Kelley will probably have to make things happen in the receiving game to have a strong week. The Saints have only allowed 31 receiving yards per game to opposing backs though. New Orleans is favored by a touchdown, so game script should keep the Chargers throwing a bit. I’d view Kelley as an upside RB3 this week despite a less than ideal matchup.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 5: @ HOU): Shenault finally had the kind of week we’ve been looking for out of him last Sunday with 91 yards on 6 touches (5 receptions), and this week he faces a Houston defense that is fresh off of allowing Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to combine for 12 catches and 217 yards. I’d like to see the Jaguars give Shenault more of a full-time role and he still has a floor somewhere around 40-50 scrimmage yards and 8 or so PPR points, but I like his chances to post a ceiling week in this one. He should match up with the burnable Vernon Hargreaves for most of the game, and I love his upside as a WR3 this week.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 5: @ NE): This doesn’t shape up as a great week for Jeudy, but volume alone could get him through to a nice fantasy week. Brett Rypien is likely to be under center again, and he won’t have much to work with outside of Jeudy. Noah Fant and KJ Hamler will be sidelined in this one, so that leaves Tim Patrick and probably DaeSean Hamilton as the other receiving options. It’s a little worrying that Jeudy was limited to just 4 targets in Rypien’s first start with the Broncos throwing 31 times (he averaged 8 targets per game in the first 3 weeks), but he did find the end zone and top 60 receiving yards. I’d expect Rypien to look his way more often in this one. Josh Jackson is a tough matchup in the slot where Jeudy plays 70% of his snaps, but the Pats have given up lines of 7-67-1 to Tyler Lockett and 6-84-1 to Hunter Renfrow this season. Jeudy should make for a nice WR3 in a week where there should be plenty of volume for him.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Aiyuk could get Jimmy Garoppolo back this week at QB, and he faces a Miami defense that ranks just 28th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 8th-most WR points per game so far. On the surface, it looks like a great matchup, but he may have to tangle with the best part of the Dolphins’ secondary in Xavien Howard. The 49ers only target their WRs on a league-low 39% of their pass attempts, and with Garoppolo and Mostert back this could be a game where they get ahead and lean on the run game. Howard was torched by DK Metcalf last week, so there is some hope for Aiyuk, but the limited volume makes me hesitant to rank him higher than Jeudy or Shenault in week 5.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 5: @ BAL): As I mentioned under Burrow above, the Ravens’ secondary is banged up this week and they haven’t been as dominant as they were a year ago. Higgins is working as a full-time WR in this offense, playing ahead of AJ Green, and the Ravens have ranked a pretty average 14th in pass defense DVOA. He isn’t a guy I would target in DFS lineups, but with the pass-happy game script the Bengals are likely to be dealing with, he should be a passable WR3 option.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 5: @ TEN): This game is up in the air at the moment thanks to the Titans’ coronavirus outbreak, and that probably doesn’t help Davis if they do in fact play. He played a lot last week with Cole Beasley battling through a foot injury and being limited to just 18 snaps. John Brown has also been a bit hobbled at practice this week with a calf injury. Having the game on Monday or Tuesday would give those guys a little extra time to get right and would hurt Davis’s opportunity. The rookie has shown he can perform when called upon, and Tennessee isn’t a pass defense to fear, allowing the 12th-most WR points per game. Buffalo is averaging over 330 passing yards per game, so Davis has some upside as a desperation WR3 even with everyone else healthy, but if Beasley or Brown will be limited or sit out, Davis should move up your rankings this week. If your league doesn’t allow you to designate replacement players ahead of time though, it’ll be tough to trust anyone in this game.
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Rookies to Sit:

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Dobbins has been a victim of a crowded backfield so far this year, and I don’t see a lot of reasons that won’t continue going forward. The Ravens have played in a few lopsided wins already, and still, Dobbins has failed to top 43% of the snaps played or 7 touches in any game this year. The Bengals are another opponent that the Ravens should handle easily, and I know the RB pickings can be slim out there this week, but I’d stay away from Dobbins outside of the deepest of leagues this week. Cincy has allowed the 12th-most RB points per game on the year, but that total is split 3 ways for Baltimore.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 5: @ WAS): Akers is practicing as of Thursday, but his status for Sunday’s game remains in doubt. If he plays, I think you have to wait a week to see how he is re-integrated into the backfield. The Rams look to be a true committee with no clear lead option, and that’s a situation you typically want to avoid in fantasy. Washington has allowed the 10th-fewest RB fantasy points per game on the year, and Akers likely won’t see enough work to post a big week this Sunday. I wouldn’t consider him outside of a desperation scenario.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 5: @ TEN): It looks like Moss will be ready to return to action this week, assuming the Bills still have a game to play, but I would take a wait-and-see approach before putting him back in your lineup. If the Bills and Titans play at all, it won’t be until Monday or Tuesday, and that happens only if there are no more positive COVID tests for Tennessee. If your league doesn’t allow you to designate a replacement player prior to this week’s games, I wouldn’t even consider Moss. He may return to his red-zone role and faces a defense that has allowed the 9th-most RB points per game so far, but Devin Singletary performed well as the workhorse back over the last two weeks. There’s no guarantee that we go right back to the same workload split we were seeing before Moss’s injury, and Moss wasn’t exactly lighting up the fantasy box scores before he got hurt (averaged 7.7 PPR points per game the first two weeks). I would like to see how it plays out before re-inserting Moss into any lineups, especially considering the COVID uncertainty surrounding this game.
RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 5: @ PHI): McFarland saw his first real game action in week 3 and flashed the kind of speed that the Steelers coveted him for, tallying 42 yards on 6 carries and a 7-yard reception. That performance came against the Texans though, and they rank just 29th in run defense DVOA. The Eagles rank a passable 15th in that stat, but they were 3rd in 2019 and only Darrell Henderson has made it to 60 scrimmage yards against Philly so far this season. I know it’s a dire week at running back but counting on McFarland to see more work than he did in week 3 is a fool’s errand. This is still James Conner’s backfield.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 5: @ KC): Ruggs seems likely to return this week while Bryan Edwards likely will remain sidelined, but this is not a great spot for him to have a breakout game. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest WR points per game and rank 1st in pass defense DVOA. Ruggs has the kind of obscene speed that can make a fantasy week on one play, but the Raiders don’t involve the receivers enough in their passing attack to make you feel good about starting Ruggs this week. The Raiders throw just 40.1% of their passing targets in the direction of their wideouts. Only the 49ers WRs have a lower target share.
WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 5: @ PIT): Hightower has led the Eagles in WR snaps each of the past two weeks with the rest of the position group banged up, but it’s led to just 4 catches and 41 yards. As of Thursday, Alshon Jeffrey isn’t practicing, DeSean Jackson was a limited participant, and JJ Arcega-Whiteside was practicing in full. Even if all 3 missed this game, I would tell you not to play Hightower against the Steelers. Pittsburgh ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA. If D-Jax plays, Hightower would likely see a significant drop in snap share.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): With Diontae Johnson practicing in full ahead of this week’s game, Claypool may have missed his window to shine when the Tennessee game was pushed back. He is likely to go back to playing limited snaps sharing the WR3 role with James Washington on Sunday. The Steelers have tried to get him involved in the game-plan each week, and he did record an 80-yard touchdown in week 2 against Denver, but Philly has allowed just one pass play of 40+ yards so far this year. Claypool is no more than a low-volume TD dart throw against an opponent that has allowed just 2 receiving TDs to opposing WRs thus far.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): With KhaDarel Hodge sidelined in week 4 due to a hamstring injury, it was Peoples-Jones who slid into the WR3 role for the Browns, playing 44% of the offensive snaps. He wasn’t targeted in the game, but you might chalk that up to the Browns playing with a large lead for much of the day (Cleveland led by multiple scores for all but one offensive play in the last 2 and half quarters of the game). Hodge was placed on injured reserve for at least the next few weeks, but I wouldn’t view DPJ as a guy to add even in deeper leagues right now. Hodge was targeted just 6 times in the first 3 weeks of the season in this same role, and no team plays a smaller share of their snaps with 3+ WRs on the field than the Browns (36%). Cleveland also just called up Taywan Taylor from their practice squad, and he may steal some snaps from DPJ as well. Taylor caught 37 passes for Tennessee just two seasons ago. Add in the fact that Cleveland’s opponent this week, the Colts, rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and it’s an easy call to leave Peoples-Jones on the waiver wire this week.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Bryant has continued to see his snap share and fantasy output increase each and every week this season, and as mentioned with Peoples-Jones, the Browns don’t have 3+ receivers on the field very often. This all bodes well for Bryant moving forward, but there are a couple of factors that don’t: the looming return of David Njoku and a matchup this week with the Colts. Njoku has been designated to return from injured reserve and could even be ready to suit up in week 5. Even if he doesn’t return this week, The Colts have allowed the fewest TE points per game in the league so far and have faced off with Chris Herndon, Kyle Rudolph, Jimmy Graham, and Tyler Eifert. Njoku’s return would probably at least cut Bryant’s snaps in half, and if Njoku is out one more week even 5 PPR points out of the rookie TE would be considered a successful week in this matchup.
TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 5: vs. LAC): Trautman was a popular sleeper pick for last week as Jared Cook was sidelined by a groin injury, but things didn’t exactly work out in his favor against the Lions. Josh Hill served as the TE1, and Trautman wasn’t even targeted once. He was even out-snapped by another tight end, Garrett Griffin, who has one career reception that came in 2017. Even if Cook sits again this week, you can likely find more upside elsewhere this week. The Chargers have allowed the 10th-most TE points per game on the season, but I wouldn’t be confident that Trautman can capitalize on the matchup.
Rookies on Byes in Week 5: RB D’Andre Swift, DET, RB AJ Dillon, GB, WR Quintez Cephus, DET

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 5: @ CHI): Vaughn got his first real action of the season in week 4, and he made the most of it, scoring a late touchdown and finishing with 10.6 PPR points on just 19 snaps. The Bucs’ offense is very banged up heading into this week’s game in Chicago, and that should benefit Vaughn. LeSean McCoy has been ruled out, Leonard Fournette is doubtful, and a number of pass-catchers will be out as well for this game. Ronald Jones should handle the bulk of the rushing work, but he has been ineffective as a receiver out of the backfield. Jones has 12 catches out of 18 targets for just 57 yards (3.2 yards per target). The Bears haven’t given up a lot of receiving production to opposing backs thus far (4.5 receptions and 33.5 receiving yards per game), but with the limited weapons, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vaughn log 5+ targets and a handful of carries. If you’re hamstrung at running back in a deep PPR league, he’s a viable fill-in this week, and he costs just $1,000 on DraftKings for the Thursday night showdown slate. A strong performance here could open up more opportunities for him in the weeks to come.
RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): Dallas saw his first action of the season in week 4 with Carlos Hyde sidelined, and it looks like Hyde will be out again this week. Dallas split backup work with Travis Homer, but he did manage to put up 23 yards on 4 touches. He won’t be a worthwhile play in any formats this week, but Dallas is worth monitoring and possibly even stashing in deeper dynasty formats. Chris Carson has been battling a number of injuries and Dallas would be forced into a bigger role if anything happens to Carson.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. TB): Mooney is listed as questionable for this game, but if he plays, he’s going to be an intriguing option in deep leagues and DFS formats. The changing of the guard at QB in Chicago looks like it will be a good thing for Mooney. He was targeted 8 times by Mitch Trubisky in 2+ games. He was targeted 9 times by Nick Foles in week 4. This week the Bears face a tough matchup against a Bucs’ defense that ranks 4th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 12th-fewest WR points per game, but their best corner Carlton Davis will likely be shadowing Allen Robinson. Davis has regularly been used to shadow big-bodied #1 WRs like Robinson and has had success, limiting Michael Thomas in week 1 (3 catches for 17 yards), and limiting De’Andre Hopkins late last year (5 for 23). Robinson is still going to command targets, but Mooney will have a much more favorable matchup and should see plenty of work himself. If Mooney doesn’t play, this would then apply to Anthony Miller. Mooney could be a passable WR3 in deeper leagues this week and is a sneaky DFS option as well if he plays.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 5: @ CHI): Johnson has quietly been on the field for over 30% of the Bucs snaps each of the last two weeks. It hasn’t led to any targets, but the Bucs are quickly running out of weapons ahead of the rookie. With Chris Godwin and Justin Watson already ruled out for this week, and Mike Evans a true game time-decision, Johnson seems likely to play a large number of snaps Thursday night. Brady is bound to look his way at least a few times in this one. If Evans is out, the group of weapons will consist of Scotty Miller, Gronk, Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Cameron Brate, and Johnson. The Bears’ defense has been solid against the pass (they allow the 3rd-fewest WR points per game), but you could do worse than Johnson at his minuscule $200 price tag in the Thursday showdown slate on DraftKings.
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That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and keep an eye out for updates on the Bills/Titans game. You don’t want to leave an inactive player in your lineup. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game. Original article from drinkfive.com

The final week of the 2020 NFL season is upon us, and the majority of season-long fantasy leagues have already crowned their champions. But DFS sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo allow you to extend the fantasy fun, and assemble brand-new lineups with healthy players from teams still actively competing for playoff positioning. Before every week of this season, I have provided a list of my favorite DFS sleepers and under-the-radar value plays. I do so with the help of RotoQL, which featuresup-to-date rankings of every NFL players’ DFS prices, values, stat projections, floors, and ceilings. If you read this column last week, you would have benefited greatly from our advice to make the following DFS roster picks (all Week 16 prices and fantasy points via DraftKings): QB Andy Dalton ($5,500): 30.6 fantasy pointsQB Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700): 24.6QB Jalen Hurts ($7,000): 20.6RB David Johnson ($6,100): 31.9RB J.K. Dobbins ($6,200): 13.7WR Mike Evans ($6,100): 43.1WR Brandin Cooks ($6,200): 30.1WR Tee Higgins ($4,700): 21.9TE Austin Hooper ($3,500): 14.1TE Mark Andrews ($5,700): 13.6TE Logan Thomas ($4,900): 13.3Tampa Bay D/ST ($3,800): 12San Fran D/ST ($2,700): 11Washington D/ST ($3,000): 9These players (and defenses) all vastly outperformed their price tiers, with some even leading their positions for the week. By finding such great values at modest costs, DFS managers afforded themselves studs like Deshaun Watson, Travis Kelce, and Jonathan Taylor in other roster spots.MORE WEEK 17 DFS: Best stacks| Lineup BuilderYou can read Week 17 previews and fantasy prediction articles 24/7onBetQL, find out which side the pros are betting on their NFL expert picks dashboard, follow all the NFL public betting data, and build DraftKings lineupson RotoQL.Let's break down ourtop Week 17 DFS value plays, and you can get an idea of why 100,000DFSplayers trustRotoQLto build lineups. We constantly monitor pricingand provide the most up-to-date insight and analysis to maximize your lineup success.Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today!WEEK 17 DFS TOURNAMENT LINEUPS: DraftKings| FanDuelNFL DFS Picks Week 17: QB sleepers, valuesKirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (DK: $6,300 | FD: $7,700)Cousins has enjoyed a fantastic home stretch of the regular season, averaging 23.6 fantasy points since Week 11. Now he faces a Lions defense surrendering the third-most fantasy points in the league. In Detroit’s past five games, QBs have averaged 299.2 passing yardswhile throwing a combined total of 15 touchdowns. RotoQL has Cousins projected to score 21 fantasy points, easily the highest-projected score for any signal-caller under $7,000 on DraftKings.Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $6,000 | FD: $7,300)I’m shocked at how many times I have recommended Rivers in this column this seasonconsidering he almost perennially makes my personal ‘Do Not Draft’ list, but the veteran QB’s listed prices have been values more often than not this seasonand he almost always delivers against poor defenses. Enter the Jaguars, who yield the second-most fantasy points to QBs and tank better than the Jets. RotoQL projects Rivers at 18.4with a ceiling of 28.7 points.Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,200)Aww, we’re getting nostalgic in the last week of the regular season! Carr has also made this list a handful of times this yearand for good reason. Like Rivers, the Raiders QB is unspectacular but solid. He doesn’t make too many mistakes, which limits his fantasy floor, and he has play-making receivers who boost his ceiling. Denver ranks 21st in fantasy points allowed to QBs, so he’s a great investment at $5,700.New Year’s Bonus: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (DK: $5,900 | FD: $7,400)You had me at Carolina. The Panthers have served as many QBs’ ‘get-right games’ this season, which should be no different this week for the future Hall-of-Famer. Brees averages 24.4 fantasy points in his past three games against the Panthers. If he can’t hit Black Jack against them this week, he might not be physically ready for the playoffs.WEEK 17 DFS CASH LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuelWeek 17 DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, valuesD'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (DK: $6,300 | FD: $7,500)The rookie has faced quite a few tough run defenses in the second half of the season, butSwift has still averaged17.4 fantasy points over his past five games. He turned 16 touches into 97 yards the first time these teams met in Week 9, and he has exceeded that touch count in three of the past four weeks since. With 4.6 average yards per carry and nine total touchdowns, it will be difficult to stay away from Swift at $6,300 against the Vikings, who rank 27th against RBs in fantasy land.Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders (DK: $5,700 | FD: $6,800)The veteran Gordon kicked the turbo boosters on for the home stretch of 2020, accumulating 500 yards on the ground in 93 carries since Week 10 (5.4 yards per carry). Look for him to find paydirt for the 10th time this season, and with 107 yards, he can reach the 1,000-yard mark for just the second time in his career. The Raiders have ceded the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs this seasonand 6.1 yards per carry to bell-cow backs since these teams last met in mid-November. We’re down with MG3 in Week 17.Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,100)While the Ravens have underwhelmed this season, the ‘Gus Bus’ has been rolling like it’s got Sandra Bullock at the wheel. Since Week 13, Edwards has carried the ball 38 times for 277 yards (7.3 yards per carry), and he’s found the end zone twice. He also has 73 receiving yards over Baltimore’s past two games. David Johnson just rushed for 128 yards and a score against Cincinnati, one week after Benny Snell carved the Bengals up for 107 total yards and a score. Ride the Bus to DFS glory at a discount deal this week.Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,000)Another deal at under $5,000, Hines has very quietly put up 60 fantasy points since Week 12. He serves as one of Rivers’ security blankets, equally capable of doing damage on the ground and through the air. The Jaguars are the gift that keeps on giving, as they rank 30th in fantasy against RBs. RotoQL lists Hines’ ceiling at 28.5 PPR points, a mark he hit in Week 10 against the Titans.New Year’s Bonus: Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (DK: $5,900 | FD: $5,500)He’s no Alvin Kamara, but that’s why Murray’s priced $3,600 lower than his teammate. The change-of-pace back has scored 23.5 total fantasy points over the past two games, and now he draws a Panthers defense that has been dreadful against the run all year. RotoQL gives him a 10.3-point projection with a ceiling of 39.7.WEEK 17 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback|Running back|Wide receiver|Tight end|D/ST|KickerFanDuel, DraftKings Picks Week 17: WR sleepers, valuesT.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $5,800 | FD: $6,300)Maybe Hilton traded for himself on his own fantasy team late in the seasonbecause he’s averaged 18.4 PPR points since Week 12. Now he gets to inflict some pain on a Jacksonville secondary that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. I know, I’m hammering the Jaguars this week, butHilton will hammer them, too, whether you insert him into your lineups or not.Keke Coutee, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (DK: $5,600 | FD: $5,700)At least somebody benefited from the Will Fuller suspension. Coutee has scored 61.2 fantasy points since Week 13 (15.3 per game), clearly earning the trust of Texans QB Deshaun Watson. Coutee has seen the field for 73 percent of Houston’s offensive snaps since the Fuller suspension, and he’s caught 21-of-24 targets in that span. Tennessee has allowed the third-most points to wideouts this season. RotoQL projects the third-year speedster at 13 PPR pointswith a 25-point ceiling.Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK: $5,100 | FD: $5,700)Another wideout who has benefited from the absence of a teammate, Gage has stepped up since Julio Jones suffered a hamstring injury in Week 13. Since then, Gage has 18 grabs for 224 yards and two scores. He will look to close out the season well against the Bucs, who have been surprisingly generous to receivers in fantasy this year (23rd). The oveunder for this game is set at 50 points, and Tampa Bay has scored 78 points total in the past two weeks. Expect Falcons QB Matt Ryan to throw early and often, with Gage once again profiting from the volume.Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (DK: $5,100 | FD: $6,100)Jones has been a boom-or-bust play this season, with nearly 60 combined PPR points in Weeks 13 and 15 but just 13.7 combined in Weeks 14 and 16. We at RotoQL expect him to boom again in Week 17, not just because he’s an odd-number type of guy but also because the Lions face a vulnerable Vikings secondary ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to receivers. We have Jones projected at 14.2 fantasy points, with a much higher ceiling if QB Matthew Stafford (ankle) can suit up.New Year’s Bonus: Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (DK: $5,000 | FD: $6,200)I’ve forgiven Gallup for helping my opponent eliminate me from my fantasy league’s playoffs a few weeks back (I started him in my FLEX spot over Miles Sanders the week Sanders went off against the Saints…gulp). Gallup seems to have forgiven himself, as well, as he scored 11.6 points last week against San Francisco and a whopping 33.1 points last week against the Eagles. Expect double-digits in a huge NFC East battle with the G-Men this weekend.WEEK 17 STANDARD RANKINGS:Quarterback|Running back|Wide receiver|Tight end|D/ST|KickerWeek 17 NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, valuesMark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $5,800 | FD: $7,200)Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has recently looked a lot more like he did during his 2019 MVP campaign than he did earlier in the season. Part of the reason is because he has reestablished his healthy connection with Andrews. The 6-5, 256-pound tight end has 77.7 points over the course of Baltimore’s past five games (15.5 per game), and now he travels to Cincinnati to face a Bengals D ranked 28th in fantasy against his position.Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (DK: $3,900 | FD: $5,600)Smith reached 15 or more PPR points for the third time in five weeks when he scored 23.3 against a good Saints defense in New Orleans on Christmas. RotoQL sees that 23-point mark as his ceiling against the floundering Lions, who rank 24th against tight ends in fantasy. As a red-zone favorite of the aforementioned Cousins, Smith may very well find paydirt for the third time in two weeks.New Year’s Bonus: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders (DK: $4,400 | FD: $5,700)It’s good to let go of grudges and grievances around the New Year, so I’m willing to forgive and forget about the fact that Fant did next-to-nothing for me in the four fantasy leagues I drafted him this year. Fant has scored 33.3 combined PPR points in Denver’s past two games, and he gets to finish the season off strong against a miserable Raiders defense.BetQL, RotoQL’s sister product, simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day and meaningful team trends.Check it out here! Week 17 NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepersSeattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (DK: $3,000 | FD: $3,900)The Seahawks D, which was historically bad in the first half of the season, has been surprisingly good in the second half. The biggest difference-maker has been Carlos Dunlap, who has provided Seattle with an actual pass-rush since coming over via trade. The Seahawks have scored at least nine fantasy points in every game since Week 11, and the 49ers often make mistakes with Nick Mullens under center.I wish all of our readers a happy and healthy New Year, and hope you all start 2021 with some big-time DFS winnings!

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown

It’s Adam Strangis and not Stix for the second straight week and we’re back to get you your cash picks! Last week was very solid as the misses were few and far between. I have to say that two of my favorite plays absolutely crushed my hopes last week in Aaron Jones and Corey Davis. Still, the vast majority of picks returned 3x and that’s what we’re after in NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown!
The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floohigh-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
\*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 15, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• CHALK REPORT: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Brandon Aiyuk, Lynn Bowden, Jonathan Taylor, Lamar Jackson, T.Y. Hilton and cheap Saints ALL project to be high in cash game ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST THREE or FOUR of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown: Quarterbacks

1. Patrick Mahomes ($7,900 DK/ $8,900 FD) – We won’t spend much time here. Mahomes threw three picks last week and still put up 24 DK points. He’s in the late hammer game that is attracting all sorts of attention. Do we need to spend up this far? I don’t believe so with the backs we’re targeting but if you can get there, it’s Mahomes.
2. Lamar Jackson ($7,500 DK/$8,200 FD) – Due to some depressed stats for most of the year, Jackson finds himself at a cheaper price than normal in a total smash spot. Jacksonville is 24th in DVOA against the run and 31st against the pass. Jackson has started running again, racking up over 220 rushing yards over the past two games. Baltimore absolutely needs this game against a week opponent and Lamar being Lamar is their best path to win and is probably my choice in cash this week.
3. Kyler Murray ($7,000 DK/$8,000 FD) – Another quarterback who has been sub-par lately, Kyler checks in as a massively cheap option with his rush attempts coming back. His shoulder really hindered him the past few weeks. There was a three game stretch where he ran a total of 15 times. That negates what makes him a truly special fantasy player. Last week, Kyler ran 13 times so an Eagles defense that is missing members of the secondary can be had in a big way.
4. Drew Brees ($5,900 DK/$7,500 FD) – Brees is a little better value on DK but too cheap on either site. The Saints are a playoff team with Super Bowl aspirations. I have faith he’s ready to go or the Saints wouldn’t rush him for a non-conference game that doesn’t mean an overwhelming amount in the leg run. Brees is still 10th in points per drop back on the year and will either have to put up 30 to keep up with KC or be chasing for a big part of the day.
5. Jalen Hurts ($5,900 DK/$6,900 FD) – There is small concern with any player like Hurts that game film will provide ways to exploit him to a bad game. However, I laid out the math in Game By Game. On DK, a combo of 50 rushing yards, 150 passing yards and a touchdown of any kind has you right in the 3x window. Even though the Cardinals defense is 9th in DVOA overall, New Orleans is higher and Hurts played well last week. I think it’s spending up or down this week as the mid-range all has some flaws.

Honorable Mention – Mitchell Trubisky, Ryan Tannehill, Philip Rivers

Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown: Running Backs

1. Derrick Henry ($9,500 DK/$10,200 FD) – One of the absolute stone locks for me in cash, Henry is in line for a monster day. He’s slated for 22-25 rushing attempts or more against one of the worst rush defenses in football. Detroit is dead last in DVOA against the run and only five teams have allowed more rush yards to backs. Tennessee needs to keep winning and Henry has a shot at 2,000 rushing yards for the year. He checks far too many boxes to sweat any lack of receptions.
2. Alvin Kamara ($7,400 DK/$7,800 FD) – I loved Kamara before Brees was starting but now, the man is likely to be the most popular player on the slate. Not only does Brees love him, but receiver Michael Thomas is out. The spot to attack KC is with running backs, especially since they’ve allowed the third-most receiving yards to backs. Kamara is a massive bargain and every cash lineup needs to start with he and Henry to my eyes.
3. Jonathan Taylor ($7,200 DK/$7,400 FD) – This might be the back I’m least happy about potentially not playing. It’s not impossible, but we would have to go cheap at receiver. Taylor has cleared 15+ touches in his last three games, rolled up 331 rushing yards, 83 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The rookie is doing what we though he might at the start of the year. Hey, better late than never. Oh, he also gets the Texans who have surrendered the most rushing yards in football to backs. That’s the same defense that got gouged for over 100 rush yards by David Montgomery last week on just 11 carries.
4. Cam Akers ($6,600 DK/$6,700 FD) – The Jets are a punchline, but the matchup by the stats isn’t the easiest. The Jets are eighth in DVOA against the run and that’s slightly concerning. However, it’s all about opportunity as the biggest favorite on the slate. The Rams should be able to handle this game easily and that should lead Sean McVay to run the football. As a team, they are seventh in attempts per game. Akers himself has had a long week to recover from his 50 carries over the past two games. He’s not my favorite option, but the workload and Vegas supports the play.
5. J.K. Dobbins ($5,900 DK/$5,900 FD) – I know that Gus Edwards scored more last week, but Dobbins went back to over 60% of the snaps last week and has 24 carries over the past two games. He gets the same rush defense that Lamar does, and has huge upside. When we get a double-digit carry back in the best rushing offense in football, we have to be interested under $6,000. The matchup is just the cherry on top and the Ravens seem to recognize who their best back is.
6. Leonard Fournette ($4,500 DK/$5,500 FD) – Am I doing cartwheels playing Fournette? No, for two reasons. One, I’m fat and can’t do a cartwheel so it’s a moot point. Secondly, Coach Bruce Arians lies like a rug. So when he says that Fournette will start if (and it’s increasingly likely) Ronald Jones is out, I don’t fully believe him. However, Fournette has played the pass catching back role and should get at least a dozen touches. At $4,500 that’s enough. In fairness, he has had a couple big games so if he makes it all work, I’m just going to deal with BA.

Honorable Mention – Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, D’Andre Swift, J.D. McKissic, Salvon Ahmed (if Myles Gaskin is out)

Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown: Wide Receiver

1. Tyreek Hill ($8,800 DK/$9,300 FD) – He’s the WR1 hooked up with the best quarterback in football. Do I need other reasons?
2. DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900 DK/$8,600 FD) – If you spend up on any receiver not named Hill, it has to be Nuk this week. Not only is his quarterback operating at full capacity, but Hopkins is seeing targets at a top five rate in the NFL. He now gets a banged up Darius Slay on the other side, who shouldn’t scare anyone. That’s if Slay suits up. If not, the wheels are even further up for Hopkins. He could truly be a slate breaker his week.
3. Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300 DK/$6,900 FD) – We’ll have a couple high salary receivers in Honorable Mention, but if we spend up on backs we have to trim salary somewhere. Aiyuk fits the bill against the Cowboys secondary. He’s on fire, with at least 19 DK in his last five games and a total of 56 targets in that time span. With Deebo Samuel and George Kittle out, Aiyuk will have to carry the passing game and he rookie is up for it.
4. T.Y. Hilton ($5,500 DK/$6,800 FD) – He’s an easier fit on DK but I’m in love with T.Y. this week. Not only have he and Rivers been clicking, he historically owns the Texans. On top of that, Houston’s secondary has been a disaster since losing corner Bradley Roby to suspension. I know Hilton has been invisible for most of the season but he’s come alive at the exact right time.
5. Emmanuel Sanders/Tre’Quan Smith ($4,200 DK/$5,500 FD and $3,200 DK/$5,000 FD) – With Thomas being out, the next two Saints receivers step into the spotlight. Smith has actually been playing more snaps than Sanders the past two weeks, an interesting development. He has one more target than Sanders and while the quarterback changes, both receivers will be needed to fill the 43.6% air yards share and 28.1% target share that Thomas vacates. This game is one of the highest O/U’s on the slate and it’s far too easy to get exposure here.

Honorable Mention – DK Metcalf, Allen Robinson, any Tampa receiver, Marvin Jones, CeeDee Lamb

Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown: Tight End

1. Travis Kelce ($8,000 DK/$8,500 FD) – I mentioned it in the Gam By Game and we talked about it in Discord, but Kelce is actually still underpriced. Yes, he’s a tight end by position but you’re getting a discount on the receiver-like production he’s giving you. Metcalf is more expensive, yet Kelce has more PPR points. He’d be my main target from the Chiefs given the price deficiency if you can afford him.
2. Mark Andrews ($5,500 DK/$6,800 FD) – My only sort of issue is the amount of times Baltimore passes the ball. Jackson has only 34 attempts combined the past two weeks, but Andrews can still get it done. He put up 12.8 DK last week without a score and Jacksonville has allowed 10 touchdowns on the year to tight ends.
3. Jared Cook ($3,400 DK/$5,600 FD) – You can’t go full hog on Saints in cash, but Cook is going to help fill the Thomas void as well. Cook already leads the team in end zone targets and he’s third in red zone targets. With Thomas out, Cook has double-touchdown potential just like Mike Gesicki did last week against the Chiefs.
4. Cole Kmet ($3,000 DK/$5,100 FD) – Kmet has played over 70% of the snaps the past three weeks after the Bears bye week. Additionally, Kmet has seen three, seven and seven targets over this three games and the past two has at least four receptions. He’s just way too cheap for the growing role and he’s easy to fit in any build.

Honorable Mention – T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert

Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown: Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Dolphins
2. Colts
3. Seahawks
4. Patriots
5. 49ers
6. Cowboys

Sample Lineup

QB – Patrick Mahomes
RB – Derrick Henry
RB – Alvin Kamara
WR – Brandon Aiyuk
WR – T.Y. Hilton
WR – Tre’Quan Smith
TE – Cole Kmet

Every NFL week, we'll go game by game and name a Play and a Fade for each contest. Plays and fades are relative to their consensus rankings and salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel. Meaning the Play will not always be the player I expect to have the most fantasy points for a given game and the Fade will not always be a player I expect to get zero snaps.

Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars

PLAY: James Robinson

The Jacksonville Jaguars like to have a workhorse running back and have made it clear that James Robinson is the guy for them. The undrafted rookie RB is averaging a solid 5.1 YPC on 32 carries. The Miami Dolphins have been decent against the run, but I expect the Jags to hop in front of this one and give Robinson a large workload.

FADE: Keelan Cole

Keelan Cole has been on fire to start the season. 11 catches for 105 yards and 2 TDs in Week 1 and Week 2 combined. However, those 11 catches came on 12 targets. I am not expecting Cole to keep up that type of efficiency. DJ Chark has been lightly used to start the season and I'm expecting more targets to go his way as the season goes on. Odds are Cole does not complete the hat trick and find the endzone for the 3rd week in a row.

Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons

PLAY: Allen Robinson II

Allen Robinson has been lackluster, to say the least. He hasn't found the endzone yet this season and has barely surpassed 100 yards receiving. Although, he has seen some positive usage with 18 targets across Week 1 and Week 2. The trade rumors are behind us and now in Week 3, he goes up against a leaky Atlanta Falcons defense. I'm expecting a nice bounce-back here for A-Rob.

FADE: Matt Ryan

Matty Ice tore up the first two weeks throwing for 6 TDs and 700+ yards passing while only tossing one interception. His weapons may be as good as he’s ever had with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage at WR, Hayden Hurst at TE, and Todd Gurley II in the backfield. BUT, the Falcons are coming off of a devastating Week 2 loss against the Cowboys and now have to face a good Chicago Bears defense. The Seattle Seahawks in Week 1 and the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2 were both great matchups for game flow. The Chicago Bears are a different opponent. Did someone press the sim button? I expect the clock to be running often in this one. Matty Ice may have a couple of TDs, but the yardage won't be there.

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills

PLAY: Cooper Kupp

Tyler Higbee hogged all the TDs in Week 2 and Malcolm Brown hogged all the TDs in Week 1. Similar to Bill Belichick, Sean McVay is a master at finding what works and riding that strategy until his opponent figures it out. Rumor has it McVay grew up playing Blitz the video game and couldn't be stopped with "Da Bomb". Why would you run any other play when you can't be stopped? I'm expecting Cooper Kupp to be the beneficiary this week against the Buffalo Bills. I'm a fan of the Bills defense, but they let up big numbers to Jam Crowder in Week 1 and Mike Gesicki in Week 2.

FADE: Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs has been a stud. 16 receptions on 22 targets for 239 yards and 1 TD in the first two weeks. He's quickly built chemistry with Josh Allen and it's showing. I'm expecting the Rams to focus on Stefon Diggs which will open up some opportunities for John Brown and Cole Beasley. I love Diggs in season-long, but I'm being cautious with him for DFS in Week 3.

Washington Football Team vs Cleveland Browns

PLAY: Logan Thomas

The Logan Thomas hype team went all out in the lead up to Week 2. Everyone in the fantasy industry only had positive things to say about the guy. And then he was a full dud… catching 4 passes for 26 yards. Brutal stat line. However, he did see 9 targets. I’m expecting the targets to be there again in Week 3 against the Cleveland Browns and this week he’ll scoop them in and rack up bigger numbers.

FADE: Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb looked awesome in Week 2. He’s a stud. I just don’t trust the Cleveland Browns…. That is all. You’re obviously starting him in any season-long league, but I’d like to have exposure elsewhere in DFS.

Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings

PLAY: Justin Jefferson

Does Adam Thielen have 5 defensive backs on him every time he goes out for a route? That’s the way it feels. The Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cousins have to catch on. I love Thielen, but I’m expecting the Vikings to pivot and spread the ball around. The first-round rookie draft pick Justin Jefferson is my pick to click in Week 3 for the Vikings. He’s been efficient in his first two weeks with 5 receptions on 6 targets for 70 yards.

FADE: Adam Thielen

See the above thoughts on Justin Jefferson. Mike Vrabel is going to throw the kitchen sink at Adam Thielen in an attempt to shut him down. If the Vikings can get ahead and Dalvin Cook gets hot early, Adam Thielen may get free for some play-action passes.

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

PLAY: Julian Edelman

The fantasy community wrote Julian Edelman off once Tom Brady left town. Sunday night against the Seahawks he went off and showed why he is a Super Bowl MVP. He seems to be the same target/reception machine he’s always been even with Cam Newton throwing him the ball. This massive game for Edelman was not a blip on the radar.

FADE: Damiere Byrd

In Week 1, Damiere Byrd had a goose egg. In Week 2, he came to play posting 6 catches for 72 yards on 9 targets. In Week 3, I think we’re looking at another goose egg. They won’t need to keep up with the Raiders the same way they had to keep up with the Seahawks. I know the Raiders are coming off of a big win against the Saints, but now they have a short week and have to prepare for Bill Belichick.

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants

PLAY: Giants DEF

The 49ers offense is beat up. At the time of this writing, I’m not expecting any of Jimmy G, Raheem Mostert, George Kittle, or Deebo Samuel to play. The NYG’s defense could be a sneaky start. The opening line is 49ers -4 points.

FADE: Jordan Reed

Jordan Reed had a great Week 2 with George Kittle sidelined and hauled in 2 TDs. He looked like the elite receiving target we all know the uninjured Jordan Reed to be. Unfortunately for Reed, both of those TDs were thrown by Jimmy G. I’m not trusting Reed in Week 3 if Mullens is taking snaps. Obviously, this point is moot if Jimmy G does in fact play.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles

PLAY: AJ Green

Fantasy owners were psyched to see what a healthy AJ Green could do. Especially with the rookie Joe Burrow throwing him the ball. Thursday Night Football against the Browns was a major disappointment. It was impossible to scroll through Twitter that night without coming across the AJ Green hate hype. AJ Green ended up with 3 catches for 29 yards on 13 targets! It was clear Joe Burrow was trying to force him the ball, but the connection was just not there.
I happen to be a buyer of AJ Green. 22 targets in 2 games is hard to ignore AND he has a good quarterback. Joe Burrow is the real deal. It’s just a matter of time before these two start moving the ball down the field and into the endzone.

FADE: DeSean Jackson

The Eagles have looked bad, but the Bengals have looked worse. I’m expecting a big day for the TE duo and Miles Sanders. The Eagles are most likely going to be playing ahead in this one. DeSean Jackson is going to have to get going early if he wants to rack up any stats.

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

PLAY: JuJu Smith-Schuster

JuJu is looking at a big bounce-back week in Week 3 against the Houston Texans. He caught 7 of his 8 targets in Week 2, but it only added up to 48 yards and 0 touchdowns. Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and James Conner took all the TDs and had the big plays for the Steelers. The Steelers offense is looking decent now that Big Ben is back. JuJu should get his share of big plays and get in the endzone in Week 3.

FADE: Deshaun Watson

Deshaun Watson hasn’t been good. To make matters worse, it looks like he will not have the often injured Will Fuller in Week 3. I’m avoiding Watson until he shows any sign of life. I could see a case for him in GPPs if you’re looking for a low owned option at QB, but it’s a meta play I’m not going to make. Deandre Hopkins is laughing his way to Week 3 at 2-0.

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts

PLAY: Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor is a chalky call, but it’s hard to find anyone playable in this matchup. I had Jonathan Taylor as a play in Week 2’s Plays and Fades, but I was not expecting that massive usage he got in Week 2. He finished the game with 26 carries and out-touched Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins by a wide margin.

FADE: TY Hilton

TY Hilton was a fade in Week 2’s Plays and Fades. We’re going to fade him again. He hasn’t shown any chemistry with Phil Rivers. This is another situation that I’m avoiding until I see any positive signs here. Playing TY is a blind dart throw.

Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Chargers

PLAY: Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen is back! And by that I mean he has Justin Herbert throwing him the ball. Herbert looked mechanical back there like a robot programmed to play QB. With HerBot as the QB, Keenan Allen had 7 receptions for 96 yards on 10 targets. This is going to be a landslide victory for the Chargers going up against a McCaffrey-less Carolina Panthers. Keenan Allen will get his.
Note: Anthony Lynn has suggested Tyrod Taylor may still be the starting QB. Nothing against Tyrod Taylor, but I’m not buying what Lynn is selling. If Tyrod does indeed start, I take back Keenan Allen as a “Play”. Unless of course Tyrod plays and Keenan Allen has a good game. In that case, I’m sticking to it.

FADE: Mike Davis

Mike Davis is going to be chalky this weekend at RB. He secured all 8 of his targets for 74 yards in Week 2 and had a nice week. He’s the likely benefactor with Christian McCaffrey out. The “fade” is purely coming from a DFS perspective on this one. I’m avoiding him Week 3 because I think he’ll be highly owned. I’m playing Mike Davis in cash and fading him in GPPs. If he’s on waivers, grab him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos

PLAY: Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette is clearly the best talent in the Bucs backfield. It was just a matter of time before he became the de facto lead back. He out-touched Ronald Jones by a slim margin, but he took his opportunities and ran with them. 12 carries for 103 yards and 2 TDs for Fournette vs 7 carries for 23 yards and a TD for RoJo in Week 2. I’m expecting them to lean more and more on Fournette when push comes to shove.

FADE: Tom Brady

I’m not on the “Tom Brady hasn’t looked like himself yet” kick. I think he looks fine and is helping his team win. The Bucs are a work in progress and they’re going to get better and better as the season goes on. I’m fading him from a fantasy football perspective in Week 3 as I’m not expecting big numbers from Brady. The injuries at the WR position aren’t helping. After Week 3, he may be a nice buy-low opportunity in season-long.

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

PLAY: Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray’s passing stats have been mediocre at best, but luckily for him, he’s a stud running the football. In two games he already has 158 yards rushing and 3 TDs! When it comes to juicy matchups, the Detroit Lions are as juicy as it gets. Kyler Murray is going to go off Week 3 and take the Arizona Cardinals to 3-0.

FADE: TJ Hockenson

TJ Hockenson was a fade in Week 2’s Plays and Fades. He’s here as a fade again in Week 3 for the same reason. The usage is just not there. Hockenson has to be extremely efficient to turn his limited targets into production. He has caught all 9 of his targets for 118 yards and 1 TD so far this season. Even with the high efficiency, the production is mediocre.

Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks

PLAY: Dak Prescott

It was hard to pick a “play” in this one. Everyone looks like a good play. This game is ripe for fantasy greatness.

FADE: Chris Carson

It was hard to pick a “fade” as well. I’m expecting a high scoring affair with most of the action in the passing game. I don’t feel strongly about this one and could see it backfiring.

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints

PLAY: Alvin Kamara

There is a strong case for Alvin Kamara to be the #1 overall pick in redraft leagues. He’s a stat monster and the Saints know how to use him. The Packers DEF have already allowed 3 rushing TDs against opposing RBs this season. I’m expecting Kamara to have another multi-touchdown game.

FADE: Aaron Jones

In Week 2’s Plays and Fades, we faded Josh Jacobs against the Saints on MNF and received a lot of hate for it. Jacobs had a touchdown-less 105 yards on 30 touches… The game flow was there and he didn’t do much with it. I’m a buyer of this Saints DEF against opposing RBs. That’s where this fade is coming from.
Aaron Jones was the clear MVP of Week 2 from a fantasy football perspective. His performance brought W’s to fantasy owners and $’s to DFS players. People are going to blindly fire him up in there Week 3 lineups, but this is a tough matchup for him.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

PLAY: Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson hasn’t been great from a fantasy perspective this year. He set the bar extremely high with his 2019 showing. But this a Monday Night Football game of Patrick Mahomes vs Lamar Jackson. ESPN (and the refs) will make sure this one lives up to the hype. Lamar Jackson will be special.

FADE: Mark Ingram II

JK Dobbins was the Week 2 fade in the Baltimore Ravens game. That obviously turned out to be the right call. I’m still buying Ingram as the lead back for the Ravens, but it’s too crowded to feel comfortable firing him up in your lineups. Gus Edwards got a lot of play and JK Dobbins looked unreal when he was in. The only fantasy owners feeling good about this backfield are JK Dobbins dynasty owners.
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Read the original post here: https://optimaldfs.substack.com/p/plays-and-fades-week-3-fantasy-football

As the 2020 NFL regular season roars towards the finish line, so, too, do the majority of fantasy football redraft leagues. If you made the championship round, congratulations! If not, there’s always next year, and for now, there’s always DFS sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. These sites allow you to construct a brand-new roster each time, acquiring players at different salaries and keeping your team under a hard cap. In order to achieve DFS success, you must pinpoint under-the-radar value plays and sleepers so you can afford weekly studs in other roster slots. That’s where RotoQL comes in -- we provide detailed rankings of each NFL players’ DFS prices, values, stat projections, floors, and ceilings. I then compile a detailed list of our favorite under-the-radar value players, and we provide it to you free of charge via this weekly column. If you checked in last week, you would have benefited greatly from our advice to make the following DFS roster picks (all Week 15 prices and fantasy points via DraftKings): QB Jalen Hurts ($5,900): 40.8 fantasy pointsQB Philip Rivers ($5,900): 17RB D’Andre Swift ($6,400): 23.2RB JKDobbins ($5,900): 15.1WR Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300): 22.3WR: T.Y. Hilton ($5,500): 11.1Arizona D/ST ($2,900): 10These players (and Arizona’s D) all vastly outperformed their price tiers, with some even leading their positions for the week. By finding such great values at modest costs, DFS managers afforded themselves studs like Derrick Henry and Calvin Ridley in other roster spots.MORE WEEK 16 DFS: Best stacks|Lineup BuilderYou can read Week 16 previews and fantasy prediction articles 24/7onBetQL, find out which side the pros are betting on their NFL expert picks dashboard, follow all the NFL public betting data, and build DraftKings lineupson RotoQL.Let's break down ourtop Week 16 DFS value plays, and you can get an idea of why 100,000DFSplayers trustRotoQLto build lineups. We constantly monitor pricingand provide the most up-to-date insight and analysis to maximize your lineup success.Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today!WEEK 16 DFS TOURNAMENT LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuelNFL DFS Picks Week 16: QB sleepers, valuesJalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (DK: $7,000 | FD: $8,200)Coach Doug Pederson probably secretly wishes he had turned to Hurts earlier this season, as the rookie phenom has been explosive in his two starts for Philly. He posted 23.3 fantasy points in Week 14 against the Saintsand a whopping 40.8 in Arizona last week. Now he gets a dome game in Dallasagainst one of the more disappointing defenses of 2020. RotoQL projects Hurts to score 21.8 fantasy points against the Cowboys this weekendwith a40.8-pointceiling. Fire the rookie up with confidence.Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (DK: $6,100 | FD: $7,600)Mayfield has morphed into a sensational playmaker this season. Six days after nearly leading the Browns over the Ravens on Monday Night Football with 366 total yards and three scores, the third-year QB went 27-of-32 for 297 yards and two TDs against a good Giants defense in a 20-6 spanking. After Pittsburgh choked against the Bengals on Monday, the AFC North is very much in play for the Browns. Expect a huge statistical game for Mayfield against the lowly Jets, who rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacksand have allowed three passing TDs per game over the past three weeks.Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,200)Clearly the Bears should have kept Trubisky under center the whole season, as he’s now 5-2 as a starter in 2020. He may not be the future in Chicago but he’s definitely the present, and there’s no better gift to a QB than a sunny late-December meeting with the Jaguars. Jacksonville serves up the second-most fantasy points to QBsand has surrendered five passing TDs in the past two games.Stocking Stuffer SpecialAndy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (DK: $5,500 | FD: $6,900)Dalton finally looks comfortable under center in Dallas, and he’s quietly averaged about 17 fantasy points over his past five games. Kyler Murray just put up 406 passing yards and three TDs against Philly’s secondary, so we like Red Rifle in this crucial home game against the Cowboys’ division rivals.Saturday Slate Standouts:Kyler Murray, Cardinals; Tom Brady, Buccaneers; Derek Carr, RaidersWEEK 16 DFS CASH LINEUPS: DraftKings |FanDuelWeek 16 DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, valuesDavid Johnson, Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $6,100 | FD: $6,700)After missing a handful of contests to a concussion and COVID-19 (not the kind of alliteration you want), DJ exploded for 133 all-purpose yards in Indianapolis last weekend. He caught all 11 of his targets, serving as Deshaun Watson’s security blanket against a tough Colts front seven. The Bengals looked pretty darn good against the Steelers last weekend, but they still allow 128.6 rushing yards per game (seventh worst in the NFL). Johnson should grab at least 60 yards on the groundand maybe another 50 through the air. RotoQL projects him to score 15.8 fantasy points this weekend, which would equal enormous value at these prices.JKDobbins, Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants (DK: $6,200 | FD: $6,300)Dobbins has been one of the best offensive rookies in the second half of the 2020 season, and he’s averaged 14 fantasy points overthe past four weeks. The Giants have a good secondary, but their front seven has been vulnerable to good running games. The Ravens are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL, and Dobbins has emerged as their best back. Expect another double-digit points performance from the talented rookie this weekend.Le'Veon Bell, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons (DK: $5,800 | FD: $6,400)After standout rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered a high-ankle sprain and hip strain in a gruesome-looking play Sunday, Bell is now the true bell-cow in KC. The veteran has done it all for the Chiefs lately, and he logged 76 scrimmage yards and a score in their big 32-29 win over the Saints. The Falcons D has been better as of late, but it’s still susceptible to big-play guys in high-flying offenses. Leonard Fournette just scored two TDs in Atlanta last week, and it’s a good bet that Bell can fall in the end zone at least once this week.Stocking Stuffer SpecialChase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (DK: $4,600 | FD: $6,400)I’ve been one of the loudest critics of Kenyan Drake this season, and I maintain that Edmonds is a better fantasy player (and RB in general) than Drake. Edmonds touched the ball 14 times in Arizona’s big win over Philly last week, netting 66 yards and a touchdown (15.6 PPR points). Meanwhile, Drake managed just 40 yards on 12 touchesand appeared banged up throughout the game. RotoQL projects Edmonds at 10 PPR points with a 38-point ceiling on Saturday.Saturday Slate Standouts:D’Andre Swift, Lions; Salvon Ahmed, DolphinsWEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerFanDuel, DraftKings Picks Week 16: WR sleepers, valuesBrandin Cooks, Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $6,200 | FD: $7,000)Cooks missed one game after suffering a concussion against Indy in Week 13, but he returned to face the same Colts last weekend. He recorded six receptions on seven targets for 59 yards inhis fourth consecutive game with at least 11.9 PPR points. Cincinnatihas a much weaker secondary than Indy, so expect the volume to translate into more points production for Cooks this weekend. He’s Deshaun Watson’s A-1 ever since Will Fuller’s suspension, and he’s well worth these price tags.Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (DK: $4,700 | FD: $5,900)Bengals veteran wideout Tyler Boyd (concussion) got banged up in the upset win over the Steelers last week, so the rookie could be in for a huge volume boost from third-string QB Ryan Finley. The Texans’ pass defense has been abysmal this season, ranking 23rd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. He's a volatile play, but Higgins could come with a huge reward at a low cost.Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons (DK: 5,000 | FD: $5,400)Watkins has had a tough 2020, but Patrick Mahomes has increasingly involved the veteran wideout in the past few weeks. He has 22 targets since returning from injury in Week 12, and he’s caught four passes in three of those four games. He logged 60 receiving yards against a dynamic Saints secondary last week, so 80 yards and a score seem attainable at home against the last-ranked Falcons passing defense.Stocking Stuffer SpecialAllen Lazard, Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans (DK: $4,200 | FD: $5,700)Lazard has been heating up as of late, making up for the time he lost to core muscle surgery. Only two teams give up more fantasy points to wide receivers than Tennessee, so some of the volume should go his way this weekend.Saturday Slate Standouts:Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers; Mike Evans, Buccaneers; Marvin Jones, LionsWEEK 16 STANDARD RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerWeek 16 NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, valuesMark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,000)The high-flying Ravens are back just in time for a playoff push, and Andrews has been one of the main catalysts. The 6-5, 256-pound veteran has averaged 17 fantasy points over his past three contests, and he remains one of the more trustworthy targets in the NFL on third down and in the red zone. Unlike the majority of tight ends, Andrews has a massive ceiling and a decent floor. The Giants have allowed tight ends to find paydirt in each of their past two games, and Andrews has caught nine-of-13 red-zone targets this season (with two TDs in the past three games), so getting the Pro Bowler at $5,700 is an early Christmas gift.Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team vs. Carolina Panthers (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,000)A perfect storm of factors went into this recommendation. The veteran journeyman has enjoyed a breakout season, with 62 receptions and five touchdowns. He’s coming off his best volume game of the season, having caught 13-of-15 targets for 101 yards against the Seahawks. And this week he lines up against the Panthers defense, one of the worst units in the league and the eighth-most generous fantasy D to tight ends. Thomas has caught 32 of his 35 targets over the past four games, so you might want to hop aboard Thomas the Tank before DFS sites start to catch on.Stocking Stuffer Special:Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (DK: $3,500 | FD: $5,100)Hooper came back last week from a one-game absence due to a neck injury, and he posted 15.1 fantasy points in the Browns’ win over the Giants. Now he gets to face off with the other Big Apple team, the lowly Jets, who serve as the most generous defense to tight ends. It’s been a tough year for Hooper -- emergency appendectomy, neck ailments, etc. -- but this game should prove to be a much-needed stat-padder for the two-time Pro Bowler.Saturday Slate Standouts:Darren Waller, Raiders; Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers; Jordan Reed, 49ersBetQL, RotoQL’s sister product, simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day and meaningful team trends.Check it out here!Week 16 NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepersWashington Football Team vs. Carolina Panthers (DK: $3,000 | FD: $4,800) The team with no name sure has one hell of a defense. WFT has emerged as one of the more dominant squads in football, and it’s coming off a tough 20-15 loss to the Seahawks. Newsflash: Carolina sans-Christian McCaffrey comes nowhere near the offensive ability of Seattle. I think the Panthers struggle in D.C. this weekend, and Washington logs at least 11 fantasy points for the fifth time this season.Saturday Slate Standouts:Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions; Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

Read the original post here: https://optimaldfs.substack.com/p/plays-and-fades-week-3-fantasy-football

Every NFL week, we'll go game by game and name a Play and a Fade for each contest. Plays and fades are relative to their consensus rankings and salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel. Meaning the Play will not always be the player I expect to have the most fantasy points for a given game and the Fade will not always be a player I expect to get zero snaps.
Editor's Note: Optimal DFS is the #1 app for building fantasy lineups for DraftKings and FanDuel in Apple's App Store. Download Optimal DFS in the App Store to build customized optimized lineups and get breaking news before everyone else in your league.

Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars

PLAY: James Robinson

The Jacksonville Jaguars like to have a workhorse running back and have made it clear that James Robinson is the guy for them. The undrafted rookie RB is averaging a solid 5.1 YPC on 32 carries. The Miami Dolphins have been decent against the run, but I expect the Jags to hop in front of this one and give Robinson a large workload.

FADE: Keelan Cole

Keelan Cole has been on fire to start the season. 11 catches for 105 yards and 2 TDs in Week 1 and Week 2 combined. However, those 11 catches came on 12 targets. I am not expecting Cole to keep up that type of efficiency. DJ Chark has been lightly used to start the season and I'm expecting more targets to go his way as the season goes on. Odds are Cole does not complete the hat trick and find the endzone for the 3rd week in a row.

Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons

PLAY: Allen Robinson II

Allen Robinson has been lackluster, to say the least. He hasn't found the endzone yet this season and has barely surpassed 100 yards receiving. Although, he has seen some positive usage with 18 targets across Week 1 and Week 2. The trade rumors are behind us and now in Week 3, he goes up against a leaky Atlanta Falcons defense. I'm expecting a nice bounce-back here for A-Rob.

FADE: Matt Ryan

Matty Ice tore up the first two weeks throwing for 6 TDs and 700+ yards passing while only tossing one interception. His weapons may be as good as he’s ever had with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage at WR, Hayden Hurst at TE, and Todd Gurley II in the backfield. BUT, the Falcons are coming off of a devastating Week 2 loss against the Cowboys and now have to face a good Chicago Bears defense. The Seattle Seahawks in Week 1 and the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2 were both great matchups for game flow. The Chicago Bears are a different opponent. Did someone press the sim button? I expect the clock to be running often in this one. Matty Ice may have a couple of TDs, but the yardage won't be there.

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills

PLAY: Cooper Kupp

Tyler Higbee hogged all the TDs in Week 2 and Malcolm Brown hogged all the TDs in Week 1. Similar to Bill Belichick, Sean McVay is a master at finding what works and riding that strategy until his opponent figures it out. Rumor has it McVay grew up playing Blitz the video game and couldn't be stopped with "Da Bomb". Why would you run any other play when you can't be stopped? I'm expecting Cooper Kupp to be the beneficiary this week against the Buffalo Bills. I'm a fan of the Bills defense, but they let up big numbers to Jam Crowder in Week 1 and Mike Gesicki in Week 2.

FADE: Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs has been a stud. 16 receptions on 22 targets for 239 yards and 1 TD in the first two weeks. He's quickly built chemistry with Josh Allen and it's showing. I'm expecting the Rams to focus on Stefon Diggs which will open up some opportunities for John Brown and Cole Beasley. I love Diggs in season-long, but I'm being cautious with him for DFS in Week 3.

Washington Football Team vs Cleveland Browns

PLAY: Logan Thomas

The Logan Thomas hype team went all out in the lead up to Week 2. Everyone in the fantasy industry only had positive things to say about the guy. And then he was a full dud… catching 4 passes for 26 yards. Brutal stat line. However, he did see 9 targets. I’m expecting the targets to be there again in Week 3 against the Cleveland Browns and this week he’ll scoop them in and rack up bigger numbers.

FADE: Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb looked awesome in Week 2. He’s a stud. I just don’t trust the Cleveland Browns…. That is all. You’re obviously starting him in any season-long league, but I’d like to have exposure elsewhere in DFS.

Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings

PLAY: Justin Jefferson

Does Adam Thielen have 5 defensive backs on him every time he goes out for a route? That’s the way it feels. The Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cousins have to catch on. I love Thielen, but I’m expecting the Vikings to pivot and spread the ball around. The first-round rookie draft pick Justin Jefferson is my pick to click in Week 3 for the Vikings. He’s been efficient in his first two weeks with 5 receptions on 6 targets for 70 yards.

FADE: Adam Thielen

See the above thoughts on Justin Jefferson. Mike Vrabel is going to throw the kitchen sink at Adam Thielen in an attempt to shut him down. If the Vikings can get ahead and Dalvin Cook gets hot early, Adam Thielen may get free for some play-action passes.

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

PLAY: Julian Edelman

The fantasy community wrote Julian Edelman off once Tom Brady left town. Sunday night against the Seahawks he went off and showed why he is a Super Bowl MVP. He seems to be the same target/reception machine he’s always been even with Cam Newton throwing him the ball. This massive game for Edelman was not a blip on the radar.

FADE: Damiere Byrd

In Week 1, Damiere Byrd had a goose egg. In Week 2, he came to play posting 6 catches for 72 yards on 9 targets. In Week 3, I think we’re looking at another goose egg. They won’t need to keep up with the Raiders the same way they had to keep up with the Seahawks. I know the Raiders are coming off of a big win against the Saints, but now they have a short week and have to prepare for Bill Belichick.

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants

PLAY: Giants DEF

The 49ers offense is beat up. At the time of this writing, I’m not expecting any of Jimmy G, Raheem Mostert, George Kittle, or Deebo Samuel to play. The NYG’s defense could be a sneaky start. The opening line is 49ers -4 points.

FADE: Jordan Reed

Jordan Reed had a great Week 2 with George Kittle sidelined and hauled in 2 TDs. He looked like the elite receiving target we all know the uninjured Jordan Reed to be. Unfortunately for Reed, both of those TDs were thrown by Jimmy G. I’m not trusting Reed in Week 3 if Mullens is taking snaps. Obviously, this point is moot if Jimmy G does in fact play.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles

PLAY: AJ Green

Fantasy owners were psyched to see what a healthy AJ Green could do. Especially with the rookie Joe Burrow throwing him the ball. Thursday Night Football against the Browns was a major disappointment. It was impossible to scroll through Twitter that night without coming across the AJ Green hate hype. AJ Green ended up with 3 catches for 29 yards on 13 targets! It was clear Joe Burrow was trying to force him the ball, but the connection was just not there.
I happen to be a buyer of AJ Green. 22 targets in 2 games is hard to ignore AND he has a good quarterback. Joe Burrow is the real deal. It’s just a matter of time before these two start moving the ball down the field and into the endzone.

FADE: DeSean Jackson

The Eagles have looked bad, but the Bengals have looked worse. I’m expecting a big day for the TE duo and Miles Sanders. The Eagles are most likely going to be playing ahead in this one. DeSean Jackson is going to have to get going early if he wants to rack up any stats.

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

PLAY: JuJu Smith-Schuster

JuJu is looking at a big bounce-back week in Week 3 against the Houston Texans. He caught 7 of his 8 targets in Week 2, but it only added up to 48 yards and 0 touchdowns. Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and James Conner took all the TDs and had the big plays for the Steelers. The Steelers offense is looking decent now that Big Ben is back. JuJu should get his share of big plays and get in the endzone in Week 3.

FADE: Deshaun Watson

Deshaun Watson hasn’t been good. To make matters worse, it looks like he will not have the often injured Will Fuller in Week 3. I’m avoiding Watson until he shows any sign of life. I could see a case for him in GPPs if you’re looking for a low owned option at QB, but it’s a meta play I’m not going to make. Deandre Hopkins is laughing his way to Week 3 at 2-0.

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts

PLAY: Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor is a chalky call, but it’s hard to find anyone playable in this matchup. I had Jonathan Taylor as a play in Week 2’s Plays and Fades, but I was not expecting that massive usage he got in Week 2. He finished the game with 26 carries and out-touched Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins by a wide margin.

FADE: TY Hilton

TY Hilton was a fade in Week 2’s Plays and Fades. We’re going to fade him again. He hasn’t shown any chemistry with Phil Rivers. This is another situation that I’m avoiding until I see any positive signs here. Playing TY is a blind dart throw.

Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Chargers

PLAY: Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen is back! And by that I mean he has Justin Herbert throwing him the ball. Herbert looked mechanical back there like a robot programmed to play QB. With HerBot as the QB, Keenan Allen had 7 receptions for 96 yards on 10 targets. This is going to be a landslide victory for the Chargers going up against a McCaffrey-less Carolina Panthers. Keenan Allen will get his.
Note: Anthony Lynn has suggested Tyrod Taylor may still be the starting QB. Nothing against Tyrod Taylor, but I’m not buying what Lynn is selling. If Tyrod does indeed start, I take back Keenan Allen as a “Play”. Unless of course Tyrod plays and Keenan Allen has a good game. In that case, I’m sticking to it.

FADE: Mike Davis

Mike Davis is going to be chalky this weekend at RB. He secured all 8 of his targets for 74 yards in Week 2 and had a nice week. He’s the likely benefactor with Christian McCaffrey out. The “fade” is purely coming from a DFS perspective on this one. I’m avoiding him Week 3 because I think he’ll be highly owned. I’m playing Mike Davis in cash and fading him in GPPs. If he’s on waivers, grab him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos

PLAY: Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette is clearly the best talent in the Bucs backfield. It was just a matter of time before he became the de facto lead back. He out-touched Ronald Jones by a slim margin, but he took his opportunities and ran with them. 12 carries for 103 yards and 2 TDs for Fournette vs 7 carries for 23 yards and a TD for RoJo in Week 2. I’m expecting them to lean more and more on Fournette when push comes to shove.

FADE: Tom Brady

I’m not on the “Tom Brady hasn’t looked like himself yet” kick. I think he looks fine and is helping his team win. The Bucs are a work in progress and they’re going to get better and better as the season goes on. I’m fading him from a fantasy football perspective in Week 3 as I’m not expecting big numbers from Brady. The injuries at the WR position aren’t helping. After Week 3, he may be a nice buy-low opportunity in season-long.

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

PLAY: Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray’s passing stats have been mediocre at best, but luckily for him, he’s a stud running the football. In two games he already has 158 yards rushing and 3 TDs! When it comes to juicy matchups, the Detroit Lions are as juicy as it gets. Kyler Murray is going to go off Week 3 and take the Arizona Cardinals to 3-0.

FADE: TJ Hockenson

TJ Hockenson was a fade in Week 2’s Plays and Fades. He’s here as a fade again in Week 3 for the same reason. The usage is just not there. Hockenson has to be extremely efficient to turn his limited targets into production. He has caught all 9 of his targets for 118 yards and 1 TD so far this season. Even with the high efficiency, the production is mediocre.

Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks

PLAY: Dak Prescott

It was hard to pick a “play” in this one. Everyone looks like a good play. This game is ripe for fantasy greatness.

FADE: Chris Carson

It was hard to pick a “fade” as well. I’m expecting a high scoring affair with most of the action in the passing game. I don’t feel strongly about this one and could see it backfiring.

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints

PLAY: Alvin Kamara

There is a strong case for Alvin Kamara to be the #1 overall pick in redraft leagues. He’s a stat monster and the Saints know how to use him. The Packers DEF have already allowed 3 rushing TDs against opposing RBs this season. I’m expecting Kamara to have another multi-touchdown game.

FADE: Aaron Jones

In Week 2’s Plays and Fades, we faded Josh Jacobs against the Saints on MNF and received a lot of hate for it. Jacobs had a touchdown-less 105 yards on 30 touches… The game flow was there and he didn’t do much with it. I’m a buyer of this Saints DEF against opposing RBs. That’s where this fade is coming from.
Aaron Jones was the clear MVP of Week 2 from a fantasy football perspective. His performance brought W’s to fantasy owners and $’s to DFS players. People are going to blindly fire him up in there Week 3 lineups, but this is a tough matchup for him.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

PLAY: Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson hasn’t been great from a fantasy perspective this year. He set the bar extremely high with his 2019 showing. But this a Monday Night Football game of Patrick Mahomes vs Lamar Jackson. ESPN (and the refs) will make sure this one lives up to the hype. Lamar Jackson will be special.

FADE: Mark Ingram II

JK Dobbins was the Week 2 fade in the Baltimore Ravens game. That obviously turned out to be the right call. I’m still buying Ingram as the lead back for the Ravens, but it’s too crowded to feel comfortable firing him up in your lineups. Gus Edwards got a lot of play and JK Dobbins looked unreal when he was in. The only fantasy owners feeling good about this backfield are JK Dobbins dynasty owners.
Editor's Note: Optimal DFS is not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this application or blog. Optimal DFS cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our application or blog.