1 Gambler’s Ruin Problem - Columbia University

gambler's ruin problem

gambler's ruin problem - win

STATS: Gambler's Ruin problem

See link for problem: https://imgur.com/a/xJViIBR
Thanks!
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Probability Theory | Why You should NOT Day Trade nor Gamble (Gambler Ruin Problem)

Probability Theory | Why You should NOT Day Trade nor Gamble (Gambler Ruin Problem) submitted by patriceac to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Probability Theory | Why You should NOT Day Trade Bitcoin (Gambler Ruin Problem)

Probability Theory | Why You should NOT Day Trade Bitcoin (Gambler Ruin Problem) submitted by Piterst to btc [link] [comments]

Probability Theory | Why You should NOT Day Trade Bitcoin (Gambler Ruin Problem)

Probability Theory | Why You should NOT Day Trade Bitcoin (Gambler Ruin Problem) submitted by ABitcoinAllBot2 to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Probability Theory | Why You should NOT Day Trade nor Gamble (Gambler Ruin Problem)

Probability Theory | Why You should NOT Day Trade nor Gamble (Gambler Ruin Problem) submitted by Piterst to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

[Probability Theory / Self Study] Gambler's Ruin problem

http://i.imgur.com/TXR1iEl.png
The example involves a simple game of heads or tails, whereby the player, starting with x dollars, gains $1 from a correct guess, and conversely loses $1 from an incorrect guess.
The game continues until either the player is ruined (x=0), or the player wins a given amount m. The problem is to calculate the probability that a player will be ruined for arbitrary values of m and x.
I understand how the probability of a player being ruined can be expressed by the equation (3.7).
What I don't understand is (3.9) ; how we know that the solution of (3.7) is the linear function
p(x) = C1 + C2*x
Even though we know the function's intercepts p(0) = 1 and p(m) = 0, I don't understand how we know for certain that the function is linear.
My initial thoughts were using induction, but I'm still no further along. Any help would be much appreciated. Thanks.
submitted by bdobba to learnmath [link] [comments]

Python Gambler's Ruin Simulation

Hello, so i am trying to simulate some data and averages in regards to the gambler's ruin problem. You don't really need to know what it does, my question is more about speed and efficiency. Here is my code: ```python from random import randrange
i = 1000000 total = 0
while i > 0: t = 0 money = 20 while True: t = t +1 r = randrange(0,100) if r >= 48: x = 0 else: x = 1 if x == 1: money = money + 1 else: money = money -1 if money == 0: break total = total + t i = i - 1 print(i,t) print("Total is : " + str(total)) print("Average is : " + str(total/1000000)) ``` So I am simulating a million of cases, the compuation is not really intensive but it still takes about ten minutes to complete. Is there a faster way of doing this, with some other loops, I've read about map or numpy or something. Any help is appreciated.
submitted by reujea0 to learnpython [link] [comments]

The entire text of the intro of the Wikipedia article on Markov chains

In probability theory and related fields, a Markov process, named after the Russian mathematician Andrey Markov, is a stochastic process that satisfies the Markov property[1][2] (sometimes characterized as "memorylessness"). Loosely speaking, a process satisfies the Markov property if one can make predictions for the future of the process based solely on its present state just as well as one could knowing the process's full history, hence independently from such history; i.e., conditional on the present state of the system, its future and past states are independent. A Markov chain is a type of Markov process that has either discrete state space or discrete index set (often representing time), but the precise definition of a Markov chain varies.[3] For example, it is common to define a Markov chain as a Markov process in either discrete or continuous time with a countable state space (thus regardless of the nature of time),[4][5][6][7] but it is also common to define a Markov chain as having discrete time in either countable or continuous state space (thus regardless of the state space).[3] Andrey Markov studied Markov processes in the early 20th century, publishing his first paper on the topic in 1906, but earlier uses of Markov processes already existed.[8][9][10] Random walks on the integers and the Gambler's ruin problem are examples of Markov processes[11][12] and were studied hundreds of years earlier.[13][14] Two important examples of Markov processes are the Wiener process, also known as the Brownian motion process, and the Poisson process,[15] which are considered the most important and central stochastic processes in the theory of stochastic processes,[16][17][18] and were discovered repeatedly and independently, both before and after 1906, in various settings.[19][20] These two processes are Markov processes in continuous time, while random walks on the integers and the Gambler's ruin problem are examples of Markov processes in discrete time.[11][12] Markov chains have many applications as statistical models of real-world processes,[21][22][23] such as studying cruise control systems in motor vehicles, queues or lines of customers arriving at an airport, exchange rates of currencies, storage systems such as dams, and population growths of certain animal species.[24] The algorithm known as PageRank, which was originally proposed for the internet search engine Google, is based on a Markov process.[25][26] Furthermore, Markov processes are the basis for general stochastic simulation methods known as Gibbs sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo, are used for simulating random objects with specific probability distributions, and have found extensive application in Bayesian statistics.[24][27][28] The adjective Markovian is used to describe something that is related to a Markov process.[29]
A diagram representing a two-state Markov process, with the states labelled E and A. Each number represents the probability of the Markov process changing from one state to another state, with the direction indicated by the arrow. For example, if the Markov process is in state A, then the probability it changes to state E is 0.4, while the probability it remains in state A is 0.6.
submitted by FranceFactOrFiction to ooerintensifies [link] [comments]

Choosing stats courses for final year of Maths & Stats BSc

I'm sure everyone gets tired of seeing threads like this, so thanks for opening this and I'll try to keep it short and to the point.
I'm doing a joint degree so I can only take a few of the courses that my university offers.
I'm not really sure what I want to do after I graduate. Right now I'm thinking about either going into an actuarial graduate program, or doing 1 year statistics masters and becoming either a statistician or a data analyst. I change my mind every 6 months though, so I'd like to keep my options as open as possible.
I have to take 60 credits of stats, 20 credits of which is my statistics project and another 10 is the mandatory stochastic processes course. So that leaves me 3 stats courses I can choose from between:
■ Advanced data analysis
■ Advanced regression models
■ Bayesian statistics
■ Computational inference
■ Linear mixed models
Introduction to Gaussian linear mixed effects modelling and to the active use of modern mixed effects modelling software through R and SAS.
■ Advanced Bayesian methods
■ Environmental statistics
■ Stochastic Processes
I'm really lost as to what I should pick, they all seem like things I should be learning. I don't know whether I should be picking courses which focus on specific statistical methods, or whether it's better to pick applied courses that will give me experience putting my skills to use.
My first thoughts are that the applied skills would be easier to pick up later on, so maybe I shouldn't take those? But even eliminating the applied courses doesn't cut me down to 3 choices. At the same time so far I've only had experience working with R, so doing a course which involves working in SAS could be really useful and good for my CV.
I'm hoping that someone can point me in the right direction and let me know which courses are more important. If you made it this far down then thank you so much for reading.
Edit: I've updated the post to provide more information about the content of each course.
submitted by Flyn to statistics [link] [comments]

Is my math EE topic any good?

I'm having trouble finding a suitable topic for my math EE. I have thought of a few topics but I do not know which if any of them are good. As of right now, my topic is: "Exploring the gambler's ruin problem using Markov chains". The problem with this topic is that I feel is too basic and has been studied many times before. Does anyone know how I can make it better?
Another topic I've considered doing is exploring the solution to the circle division problem. Which one do you thinkg is better?
Any suggestions are welcome.
submitted by TheRedGambit to IBO [link] [comments]

08-22 11:12 - 'BCH supporter being schooled on how Bitcoin works (crossposting to both subreddits)' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/youvegotlukemia removed from /r/Bitcoin within 0-6min

'''
You can follow the conversation we have on the topic of BIP148/BIP149 UASFs and how they are fundamentally much worse than any of the major hard fork proposals:
[link]2
And this is the text of my last response:
No, BIP149 is different. BIP149 it opt in for miners, they do not need to do anything.
Did you just blindly swallow all the propaganda about BIP149 that was fed to people, without understanding it? From your analysis of BCH/B2X you don't come across as having no clue about blockchain dynamics and security. BIP149 is as opt-in for miners as any other consensus change, soft or hard fork. Put yourself in the shoes of a miner. You are running one node software, someone mines the first block claiming 100% of SegWit spends as fees, the blockchain splits and you end up on one chain. Do you keep mining with the same node software as before? Do you start claiming SegWit outputs for yourself as well (only possible on the non-BIP149 chain)? It's your decision, but it's quite an important decision. Quite consequential.
I think most were bluffing. Could be wrong though.
I'm not saying bluffing is any more justified than not bluffing. Actually bluffing is probably even worse.
This is quite important. If you know of people who were speaking in favor of BIP148 who were bluffing, please tell us who they are. It would really help our community. If you think that some people did wrong things, it would help you as well if you speak out and shine the light on some of those wrongdoings.
Well I said 5% to 10%. Then you give a 0.3% example. Not sure why...
It is not an example, it is the empirical observation that only about 0.3% of the total hashpower was voicing support for BIP148.
Err, not sure I agree with that. Also I do not think the whitepaper talks about this either.
On page 6 read 11. Calculations:
We consider the scenario of an attacker trying to generate an alternate chain faster than the honest chain...
The probability of an attacker catching up from a given deficit is analogous to a Gambler's Ruin problem....
Given our assumption that p > q, the probability drops exponentially as the number of blocks the attacker has to catch up with increases.
This is relevant for the probability of a UASF chain wiping out the majority chain once (which can then reappear).
Sorry, I do not follow. Not sure why or how non-UASF miners could do that. Please explain the scenario? I think that is unlikely to be an issue, as users would probably make sure funds were in a different output on both chains before using SegWit.
Read [the link I already provided to you]1 :
it does make bcoin UASF-aware and redeems all value sent to witness program outputs in the mempool. As far as the main chain is concerned, these outputs are still pushdatas (anyone-can-spend)...
So, if you're running this code when the BIP148 hardfork happens, you could essentially get free money from transactions which have the nerve to send money to an unenforced soft-fork address...
This works because:
If a UASF user sends their old coins to a p2wpkh on uasf-coin, anyone can redeem their money on bitcoin...
Author: chjj
Also, this concept is very different from the wipeout issue.
Indeed it is. It is much worse.
Im not sure miners stealing user funds is likely to be helpful.
It's not stealing, it's like someone convincing you to leave your cash on a sidewalk and then someone collecting it. Blame the person convincing you and then yourself.
if the economy wasn't running SegWit clients, doing BIP148 would have achieved nothing.
The fact that most of the economy was running SegWit-aware versions of Bitcoin Core is irrelevant for the chainsplit and subsequent critical security implications. Indeed BIP148 would have achieved nothing for those nodes without the mining majority (except for the free bitcoins for the miners). The economy, with few exceptions, was NOT running BIP148 clients.
Well it only worked once.
There were several soft forks which used very similar activation, by miner signalling.
The old BIP148 like method worked 5 times in the past
Show me one example of a soft fork which was activated when it didn't have a majority of hashpower on its side, or even that was not thought to have a majority on its side.
which could have been used against a UASF chain if it ever threatened to overtake and wipe out the main chain
Well the UASF did win...
No, there was no minority activation and consequent chainsplit, which this conversation was about. No one needed to employ this (except BCH which split even more explicitly).
?? The miners ran BIP148 compatible code...
The miners ran code which prevented the detrimental effects of BIP148, starting with the chainsplit. In that sense it is a "UASF defense".
'''
BCH supporter being schooled on how Bitcoin works (crossposting to both subreddits)
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: youvegotlukemia
1: https://github.com/bcoin-org/bcoin/pull/205 2: https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/6v0gll/why_segwit2x_b2x_is_technically_inferior_to/dlynwsk/?context=9
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

Decision theory humor

Persi Diaconis, "The Problem of Thinking Too Much":
...An agglomeration of economics, psychology, decision theory, and a bit of complexity theory is the current dominant paradigm. It advises roughly quantifying our uncertainty, costs, and benefits (utility) and then choosing the course that maximizes expected utility per unit of time. A lively account can be found in I. J. Good’s book Good Thinking (don’t miss his essay on “How Rational Should a Manager Be?”).
To be honest, the academic discussion doesn’t shed much light on the practical problem. Here’s an illustration: Some years ago I was trying to decide whether or not to move to Harvard from Stanford. I had bored my friends silly with endless discussion. Finally, one of them said, “You’re one of our leading decision theorists. Maybe you should make a list of the costs and benefits and try to roughly calculate your expected utility.” Without thinking, I blurted out, “Come on, Sandy, this is serious.”
One of the most useful things to come out of my study is a collection of the rules of thumb my friends use in their decision making. For example, one of my Ph.D. advisers, Fred Mosteller, told me, “Other things being equal, finish the job that is nearest done.” A famous physicist offered this advice: “Don’t waste time on obscure fine points that rarely occur.” I’ve been told that Albert Einstein displayed the following aphorism in his office: “Things that are difficult to do are being done from the wrong centers and are not worth doing.” Decision theorist I. J. Good writes, “The older we become, the more important it is to use what we know rather than learn more.” Galen offered this: “If a lot of smart people have thought about a problem [e.g., God’s existence, life on other planets] and disagree, then it can’t be decided.”
...In retrospect, I think I should have followed my friend’s advice and made a list of costs and benefits—if only so that I could tap into what I was really after, along the lines of the following “grook” by Piet Hein:
"A Psychological Tip"
Whenever you’re called on to make up your mind, and you’re hampered by not having any, the best way to solve the dilemma, you’ll find, is simply by spinning a penny. No—not so that chance shall decide the affair while you’re passively standing there moping; but the moment the penny is up in the air, you suddenly know what you’re hoping.
Clayton Littlejohn:
If your flatmate has Norovirus, it's irrational not to binge on ice cream given the non-0 probability of vomiting later.
Yvain, "Causal Models at Work":
And a few weeks later:
Houshalter finds an amusing anecdote from Richard Hamming from "Mathematics on a Distant Planet":
The first occurred at Los Alamos during WWII when we were designing atomic bombs. Shortly before the first field test (you realize that no small scale experiment can be done -- either you have the critical mass or you do not), a man asked me to check some arithmetic he had done, and I agreed, thinking to fob it off on some subordinate. When I asked what it was, he said, "it is the probability that the test bomb will ignite the whole atmosphere," I decided I would check it myself! The next day when he came for the answers I remarked to him, "The arithmetic was apparently correct but I do not know about the formulas for the capture cross sections for oxygen and nitrogen -- after all, there could be no experiments at the needed energy levels." He replied, like a physicist talking to a mathematician, that he wanted me to check the arithmetic not the physics, and left. I said to myself, "what have you done, Hamming, you are involved in risking all life that is known in the Universe, and you do not know much of an essential part?" I was pacing up and down the corridor when a friend asked me what was bothering me. I told him. His reply was, "Never mind, Hamming, no one will ever blame you."
Gelman quotes:
"The confidence interval can exclude 0, in which case I can submit it to a really good journal, or it can include 0, in which case I can look really hard and throw out some bad data points." (an example of decision analysis)
  1. "We economized. People died. And we didn't even save money!" (incremental cost effectiveness ratio)
  2. "Maybe we think there's nothing going on because it's education research." (prior beliefs about treatment effects)
  3. "The gambler's ruin problem, that's a theory about what happens when you're a gambler."
  4. "A Bayesian version will usually make things better."
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[Probability] Gambler's Ruin in Limited Turns

Hello, I'm looking to apply a version of the gambler's ruin problem to my research. It's the probability of ruin within a finite number of turns. From reading the explanation in the link below, I understand the general concept. However, honestly, I'm a bit lost about how they developed the series of the generating function P3(x). This appears right above the second array towards the end. Specifically, how did they get the series from the equation immediately above.
http://www.mathpages.com/home/kmath683/kmath683.htm
Any help is much appreciated!
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People who work in casinos and see the desperation and ruin of problem gamblers, how do you process it?

submitted by Odd_craving to AskReddit [link] [comments]

Problem with Gambler's ruin

Problem with Gambler's ruin submitted by xXPhoenix420Xx to OnlyMathematics [link] [comments]

Shkreli on GME - 1/31

Gamestonk. Gamestop. GME. My thoughts are on Reddit, under my u/martinshkreli & subreddit martinshkreli. Those are authentic and discuss why GME is one of the most unprecedented events in market history. Here, I'm going to discuss the populist attitude that is creeping into this odd situation and add some thoughts on short-selling in general.
Let's cover my own unique angle on the concept of a 'short squeeze'. Most would define it as an erratic upward change in price driven by short-covering. I believe short-squeezes defined this way are usually a fictitious idee fixe that aggregates a number of discrete market behaviors and dynamics into a convenient and pithy moniker. The image of python-like buyer constricting some hapless speculator into a higher stock price is evocative but misleading. Many knew me as a short-selling specialist on Wall Street, focused on 'binary events' of biotech stocks. I think I've seen it all: I was once short more than 75% of a company's shares outstanding (I do not recommend this). I bought 75% of a company on the open market, etc.
Short-sellers are governed by the same market dynamics as longs. They get nervous when positions go against them and consider exiting. Like longs, they can double down if they wish. The only difference is that, of course, short positions grow when stocks rise. And they can rise infinitely, while long positions fall asymptotically to zero. But both get, theoretically and assuming no fundamental changes have occurred, more attractive as they move against the trader.
Short sellers have to pay borrow fees to longs (typically tiny, but sometimes massive). They have to locate stock to short, again usually easy, but sometimes difficult. Both are perilous when those rare adverse times arise. Why? Despite the possibility of a growing cost of renting stock, the ultimate fear of a short-seller is a "buy-in". It is nightmarish and has only happened to me once or twice, excluding options-related activity. A buy-in occurs when a broker decides to forcibly exit the short position on behalf of the trader because the broker and trader cannot secure the 'locate' which is supposed to underlie the short sale. The buy-in order is typically violently disruptive: a market order for the whole position near the closing hours of the market! The SEC published a list of stocks at risk of buy-in: the fail to deliver list.
My point is that a 'short squeeze' can only practically affect the trader for two reasons. The first is that the trader digs in, doubles down and doesn't exit as his position grows. That's bad trading, and will eventually blow the trader up. But, if the stock is a 'good short', that short will be replaced by more traders with stronger hands/a better entry price/smaller position. What's more is the average investor can't tell if this is happening! The second is the buy-in. I haven't heard GME shorts being bought in, but again, how would you know, other than the grapevine? My point is most of the disruptive, exciting trading here is simply long speculators banging away at the stock.
New longs are sometimes attracted to rising prices, speculating they'll increase further: that's called momentum. Those buyers are typically offset by the existing longs who are excited to exit at higher prices. But, if there is a large short position in the stock, a speculator may feel that those covering (buying to get out) short-sellers will provide additional fuel to the momentum. That's sometimes the case, but higher prices should lead to more supply from both long and short sellers. My feeling is the actions of large long holders probably have more influence on the stock price than shorts who dart in and out, and typically in smaller size. Remember that shorts who capitulate are often just replaced by new shorts who are attracted at the new lunar prices.
In essence, 'short squeezes' become a self-fulfilling prophecy as new long investors pile in trying to 'squeeze' this sometimes phantom of a short seller, and existing long investors may hold off selling for the same reason. With some Popperian skepticism you will easily see that the same dynamic can exist without the short boogeyman, or with a short boogeyman of any size. Speaking of which, where is Chanos and his slavish groupie, Carson Block?
Speculative momentum can occur for any reason. Let's not forget that the 'trapping shorty' strategy is an awkward idea for a few reasons. Short sellers are often sophisticated market participants who are betting on the decline of a stock. You usually don't want these type of traders sniffing around your favorite longs: I recall writing a 'short report' on a stock to watch it fall 50% that day. If you do a study of stock returns of highly shorted stocks, they are pretty awful. The reason there is 'no arbitrage' is the borrow rate.
But even if you got this poor short to capitulate and squeeze, the amount of buyers who are now holding stock at absurdly high prices put way more energy (and money) into the stock than the short seller's white towel ever could. A sledgehammer killed the fly: now what? Alternatively, are you the host or the parasite?
On populism. I don't really think most investors or speculators should go into any investment thinking that there is 'an enemy'. Concentrated (big) investments (bets) give rise to emotional behavior, typically the enemy in trading and investing as it clouds rational thinking. It's a lot better to be Socratic with your 'opponent' and understand what they're thinking. If your position were to be half the size it currently is, would you be as emotionally interested? Try it! You'll lower your risk and feel better.
Some of the behavior going on at WSB sounds more jihadist than speculative. The idea that there are some investors who are 'good' and others who are 'bad', or that there is an 'establishment' is BS. Everyone has the same goal: I have a pile of money, I'm trying to make it bigger, fuck your pile--I don't care about it. Anything other goal is contrived, foolish and won't help you win. You can't 'fight the rich' by trying to become one of them. Don't you see the irony? A related thought experiment: what if this trade continued to work really well? And another, and another? Then some WSBers are billionaires. Aren't they the new 'enemy/establishment?'
Who do you think hedge fund managers are? They're typically the anti-establishment. Things have changed a bit, but the most successful HFMs are actually the WSBers of the past. These are guys who didn't fit in well at i-banks, often got kicked out for having big mouths or not wearing the right ties, or just wanting to wear jeans at work and not fill out TPS reports. When they started their firms, people like Soros, Icahn, Steinhardt, Robertson, Cohen, Griffin, Loeb (who has posted anonymously on boards), Samberg, even Cramer were fish out of water and had very tiny amounts of capital, often begging for investors.
The need for an enemy. To sustain increasingly insane behavior, it isn't uncommon to use a straw man or a scapegoat. Oppressive regimes used this technique in the past, and the media uses it today. Retail investors don't have much power individually. With your $5k RH account, you can't day trade or even qualify for margin. It's pitiful. So, it's understandably quite exciting to finally feel like a 'player' that you read about. To be a part of 'something'. The problem is the media is goading you to be somewhere between a lemming and a life-agnostic but impotent jihadist. Blowing yourself up won't impress anyone, and there is no afterlife here, other than a minimum wage career and mom's sofa. GME and shorting in general is small potatos in the scheme of the Wall St. machine. Don't worry about getting 'even' with the rich. That's jousting at a windmill that will waste your energy.
No one here, hopefully, wants to be a lemming. Those willing to 'die on this hill' have to realize something: Wall Street doesn't care about its speculators. The new traders who vanquish the old simply replace them. Nothing changes. When LTCM blew up, or Amaranth, Visium, Galleon, or anyone else, it is 'out with the old and in with the new'. So, perhaps WSB can blow up 1 hedge fund or maybe 5, but so what? Eventually, the tables will turn and it will blow up. The leveraged, fast-money trading markets are a violent place and the only people who care one whit are the brokers charging fees (directly or indirectly). They only care to make sure the sorry carcasses can pay their bills. They know there will always be another speculator lined up, ready to shove his money into the lotto machine. There is no pride here. There is no credit for being a good solider. You either survive or you don't. Your job is to survive and thrive. Becoming a lemming will guarantee failure as per the statistical truism of gambler's ruin (enjoy the proof in measure theory). With enough time, anyone playing a game with <50% success rate (equal payouts), will lose all their money. Get that number above 50%. Add the Kelly Criterion to your trading strategy.
You might ask, "(that's all well and good OR we'll agree to disagree) but, Mr. Shrek, isn't this a good trading strategy? (ganging up on shorted stocks)?" As long as you're not a lemming/jihadist (willing to walk over the cliff, whether or not you have a "cause"), and you ignore a somewhat slimy ethical/market manipulation question, I don't see anything wrong with it. There are better ways to make money, since you're asking. Stoking (or worse, participating in) a buying frenzy that is akin to a forced musical chairs game is a little crazy. Once a stock is absurdly valued, you're just hoping the sell-off doesn't happen while you're holding it. If you have enough lemmings or jihadists 'helping you', that's a good thing. They will hold your bag--someone needs to.
Of course, if you've found the "next" Microsoft or Apple, no one needs to hold any bags. But, no company can increase its objective (aka fair) value quickly enough for this... phenomenon? situation? absurdity?... to make it reasonable. Those things take years, go slow and steady, and this frenzied buying/"short squeeze" phenomenon won't let value play a factor. That's why WSB GME longs have shifted theses from "well, Gamestop was/is cheap" to "the gaming cycle" to "Ryan Cohen will save us" to "...jihad?!"
Each member of the herd has its own financial parameters, too. Some may have $500, some $50,000,000 or more. Some may be willing to lose their entire stake (and even more) on an out-of-the-money or levered trade. Some are not. Some were in the latter and somehow end up in the former. Some are in one column at one price and another column at another--some are switched from column to column by force. Today's lemmings/jihadists are tomorrow's sellers. When you're hanging off the mountain, pay attention to the guy holding the rope.
Loosely 'coordinated' buying can certainly affect stocks. Heavily shorted stocks and small cap stocks are the kind that require less capital than typical to 'move' a stock. The irony here is when putting on a position, the trader's goal is typically NOT to move the stock with his actions!
I still think GME is wildly overvalued, but that doesn't exactly mean I'm 'bearish'. One funny idea here is reflexivity: GME stockholders may become serious GME customers and the company's fundamentals improve that way! Excluding some such miracle, eventually GME stock will trade at <50 again. I still think it will trade at 1,000 or more BEFORE that happens, and that the decline process will take a long, long time (several years). Keep in mind, anything can change. GME can do serial secondaries that destroy its stock. Management's job is to create value for their shareholders--but perhaps they will avoid pissing them off. There's a strange loop! Finally, the stock could be halted by the SEC or completely banned by brokers. Don't overdo it. Watch the borrow rate. Keep your positions at less than 25% of your capital--live to play another day.
Disclosure: I've never traded GME stock and do not intend to.
(From martin, posted by mo)
submitted by martinshkreli to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Shkreli on GME - 1/31

Gamestonk. Gamestop. GME. My thoughts are on Reddit, under my u/martinshkreli & subreddit martinshkreli. Those are authentic and discuss why GME is one of the most unprecedented events in market history. Here, I'm going to discuss the populist attitude that is creeping into this odd situation and add some thoughts on short-selling in general.
Let's cover my own unique angle on the concept of a 'short squeeze'. Most would define it as an erratic upward change in price driven by short-covering. I believe short-squeezes defined this way are usually a fictitious idee fixe that aggregates a number of discrete market behaviors and dynamics into a convenient and pithy moniker. The image of python-like buyer constricting some hapless speculator into a higher stock price is evocative but misleading. Many knew me as a short-selling specialist on Wall Street, focused on 'binary events' of biotech stocks. I think I've seen it all: I was once short more than 75% of a company's shares outstanding (I do not recommend this). I bought 75% of a company on the open market, etc.
Short-sellers are governed by the same market dynamics as longs. They get nervous when positions go against them and consider exiting. Like longs, they can double down if they wish. The only difference is that, of course, short positions grow when stocks rise. And they can rise infinitely, while long positions fall asymptotically to zero. But both get, theoretically and assuming no fundamental changes have occurred, more attractive as they move against the trader.
Short sellers have to pay borrow fees to longs (typically tiny, but sometimes massive). They have to locate stock to short, again usually easy, but sometimes difficult. Both are perilous when those rare adverse times arise. Why? Despite the possibility of a growing cost of renting stock, the ultimate fear of a short-seller is a "buy-in". It is nightmarish and has only happened to me once or twice, excluding options-related activity. A buy-in occurs when a broker decides to forcibly exit the short position on behalf of the trader because the broker and trader cannot secure the 'locate' which is supposed to underlie the short sale. The buy-in order is typically violently disruptive: a market order for the whole position near the closing hours of the market! The SEC published a list of stocks at risk of buy-in: the fail to deliver list.
My point is that a 'short squeeze' can only practically affect the trader for two reasons. The first is that the trader digs in, doubles down and doesn't exit as his position grows. That's bad trading, and will eventually blow the trader up. But, if the stock is a 'good short', that short will be replaced by more traders with stronger hands/a better entry price/smaller position. What's more is the average investor can't tell if this is happening! The second is the buy-in. I haven't heard GME shorts being bought in, but again, how would you know, other than the grapevine? My point is most of the disruptive, exciting trading here is simply long speculators banging away at the stock.
New longs are sometimes attracted to rising prices, speculating they'll increase further: that's called momentum. Those buyers are typically offset by the existing longs who are excited to exit at higher prices. But, if there is a large short position in the stock, a speculator may feel that those covering (buying to get out) short-sellers will provide additional fuel to the momentum. That's sometimes the case, but higher prices should lead to more supply from both long and short sellers. My feeling is the actions of large long holders probably have more influence on the stock price than shorts who dart in and out, and typically in smaller size. Remember that shorts who capitulate are often just replaced by new shorts who are attracted at the new lunar prices.
In essence, 'short squeezes' become a self-fulfilling prophecy as new long investors pile in trying to 'squeeze' this sometimes phantom of a short seller, and existing long investors may hold off selling for the same reason. With some Popperian skepticism you will easily see that the same dynamic can exist without the short boogeyman, or with a short boogeyman of any size. Speaking of which, where is Chanos and his slavish groupie, Carson Block?
Speculative momentum can occur for any reason. Let's not forget that the 'trapping shorty' strategy is an awkward idea for a few reasons. Short sellers are often sophisticated market participants who are betting on the decline of a stock. You usually don't want these type of traders sniffing around your favorite longs: I recall writing a 'short report' on a stock to watch it fall 50% that day. If you do a study of stock returns of highly shorted stocks, they are pretty awful. The reason there is 'no arbitrage' is the borrow rate.
But even if you got this poor short to capitulate and squeeze, the amount of buyers who are now holding stock at absurdly high prices put way more energy (and money) into the stock than the short seller's white towel ever could. A sledgehammer killed the fly: now what? Alternatively, are you the host or the parasite?
On populism. I don't really think most investors or speculators should go into any investment thinking that there is 'an enemy'. Concentrated (big) investments (bets) give rise to emotional behavior, typically the enemy in trading and investing as it clouds rational thinking. It's a lot better to be Socratic with your 'opponent' and understand what they're thinking. If your position were to be half the size it currently is, would you be as emotionally interested? Try it! You'll lower your risk and feel better.
Some of the behavior going on at WSB sounds more jihadist than speculative. The idea that there are some investors who are 'good' and others who are 'bad', or that there is an 'establishment' is BS. Everyone has the same goal: I have a pile of money, I'm trying to make it bigger, fuck your pile--I don't care about it. Anything other goal is contrived, foolish and won't help you win. You can't 'fight the rich' by trying to become one of them. Don't you see the irony? A related thought experiment: what if this trade continued to work really well? And another, and another? Then some WSBers are billionaires. Aren't they the new 'enemy/establishment?'
Who do you think hedge fund managers are? They're typically the anti-establishment. Things have changed a bit, but the most successful HFMs are actually the WSBers of the past. These are guys who didn't fit in well at i-banks, often got kicked out for having big mouths or not wearing the right ties, or just wanting to wear jeans at work and not fill out TPS reports. When they started their firms, people like Soros, Icahn, Steinhardt, Robertson, Cohen, Griffin, Loeb (who has posted anonymously on boards), Samberg, even Cramer were fish out of water and had very tiny amounts of capital, often begging for investors.
The need for an enemy. To sustain increasingly insane behavior, it isn't uncommon to use a straw man or a scapegoat. Oppressive regimes used this technique in the past, and the media uses it today. Retail investors don't have much power individually. With your $5k RH account, you can't day trade or even qualify for margin. It's pitiful. So, it's understandably quite exciting to finally feel like a 'player' that you read about. To be a part of 'something'. The problem is the media is goading you to be somewhere between a lemming and a life-agnostic but impotent jihadist. Blowing yourself up won't impress anyone, and there is no afterlife here, other than a minimum wage career and mom's sofa. GME and shorting in general is small potatos in the scheme of the Wall St. machine. Don't worry about getting 'even' with the rich. That's jousting at a windmill that will waste your energy.
No one here, hopefully, wants to be a lemming. Those willing to 'die on this hill' have to realize something: Wall Street doesn't care about its speculators. The new traders who vanquish the old simply replace them. Nothing changes. When LTCM blew up, or Amaranth, Visium, Galleon, or anyone else, it is 'out with the old and in with the new'. So, perhaps WSB can blow up 1 hedge fund or maybe 5, but so what? Eventually, the tables will turn and it will blow up. The leveraged, fast-money trading markets are a violent place and the only people who care one whit are the brokers charging fees (directly or indirectly). They only care to make sure the sorry carcasses can pay their bills. They know there will always be another speculator lined up, ready to shove his money into the lotto machine. There is no pride here. There is no credit for being a good solider. You either survive or you don't. Your job is to survive and thrive. Becoming a lemming will guarantee failure as per the statistical truism of gambler's ruin (enjoy the proof in measure theory). With enough time, anyone playing a game with <50% success rate (equal payouts), will lose all their money. Get that number above 50%. Add the Kelly Criterion to your trading strategy.
You might ask, "(that's all well and good OR we'll agree to disagree) but, Mr. Shrek, isn't this a good trading strategy? (ganging up on shorted stocks)?" As long as you're not a lemming/jihadist (willing to walk over the cliff, whether or not you have a "cause"), and you ignore a somewhat slimy ethical/market manipulation question, I don't see anything wrong with it. There are better ways to make money, since you're asking. Stoking (or worse, participating in) a buying frenzy that is akin to a forced musical chairs game is a little crazy. Once a stock is absurdly valued, you're just hoping the sell-off doesn't happen while you're holding it. If you have enough lemmings or jihadists 'helping you', that's a good thing. They will hold your bag--someone needs to.
Of course, if you've found the "next" Microsoft or Apple, no one needs to hold any bags. But, no company can increase its objective (aka fair) value quickly enough for this... phenomenon? situation? absurdity?... to make it reasonable. Those things take years, go slow and steady, and this frenzied buying/"short squeeze" phenomenon won't let value play a factor. That's why WSB GME longs have shifted theses from "well, Gamestop was/is cheap" to "the gaming cycle" to "Ryan Cohen will save us" to "...jihad?!"
Each member of the herd has its own financial parameters, too. Some may have $500, some $50,000,000 or more. Some may be willing to lose their entire stake (and even more) on an out-of-the-money or levered trade. Some are not. Some were in the latter and somehow end up in the former. Some are in one column at one price and another column at another--some are switched from column to column by force. Today's lemmings/jihadists are tomorrow's sellers. When you're hanging off the mountain, pay attention to the guy holding the rope.
Loosely 'coordinated' buying can certainly affect stocks. Heavily shorted stocks and small cap stocks are the kind that require less capital than typical to 'move' a stock. The irony here is when putting on a position, the trader's goal is typically NOT to move the stock with his actions!
I still think GME is wildly overvalued, but that doesn't exactly mean I'm 'bearish'. One funny idea here is reflexivity: GME stockholders may become serious GME customers and the company's fundamentals improve that way! Excluding some such miracle, eventually GME stock will trade at <50 again. I still think it will trade at 1,000 or more BEFORE that happens, and that the decline process will take a long, long time (several years). Keep in mind, anything can change. GME can do serial secondaries that destroy its stock. Management's job is to create value for their shareholders--but perhaps they will avoid pissing them off. There's a strange loop! Finally, the stock could be halted by the SEC or completely banned by brokers. Don't overdo it. Watch the borrow rate. Keep your positions at less than 25% of your capital--live to play another day.
Disclosure: I've never traded GME stock and do not intend to.
(From martin, posted by mo)
submitted by martinshkreli to MartinShkreli [link] [comments]

Albedo Build - The Skill-Idiot

This is also know known as the:

Geo-Fischl Build

Japanese Video of the Skill-Idiot Albedo.
Since that's what the youtuber is essentially calling him, we'll just go with that.
Here's the quick TL;DR of the video
In an updated video, he has his stats at:
With the above stats, he is getting (seen in this updated video):
Of course that damage can happen every 2s.
Thankfully the blossoms do not fully consume the elements, so you can use him to supplement damage in any party.
The main focus for this is of course, his Skill.
It is noted that if you use him with Zhongli, only the center of is a construct (can resonate with Zhongli's pillar), but the resonance from both the pillar and the construct can trigger the Albedo's blossoms as well.

Weapon

The new 5-star Sword, as well as the other 5-star swords, are actually terrible for him since none of them boost DEF or his Skill DMG. So they won't be helping his Blossoms. So yay, you can ignore the rare stuff.
Here's a video by Krush SG explaining exactly how much better Harbinger of Dawn is than Festering Desire.
To further add on how much Harbinger of Dawn is over everything else for Albedo, Kleeful's Albedo Albacus (included in the artifact section below) shows in even greater detail just how much better it is.

Artifact Recommendations

Here is a hopefully easy to understand comparison of the main combinations of Artifact sets used on Albedo
Forgot to add the note that the calculator was set for 3 Fatal Blossom hits on the Q, meaning you got lucky and essentially are doing the most with your Q. Instead of just the 1 guaranteed or the more often than not 2 blossom (I forgot to change it to 2, which I normally would do as that would be the average.... ah well).
It is also only set to 5 Transient Blossoms from his E. Given that you can do more than that (and less) depending on positioning and making sure you trigger them as fast as possible, you can technically get up to 15..... So that number for the E could almost triple in an ideal situation. Further pushing up how good the Defender build is.....
Here is an extra on why it is better to have Crit Stats on your Circlet over DEF%. Just a simple comparison.
Will possibly add another chart later with crit stat variances in substats, but that's a lot of extra work and only really needed to see how much better or where the breaking point would be between crit stats and DEF% in the substats. Since in general, just adding the same crit stats to any of the previous set combinations with those DEF% values will affect the numbers in the same way.
As of note, getting 60-80% DEF in just Substats alone is about 2-3 rolls towards DEF% on a stat that was there from the start (meaning a 5-star with 4 substats at +0 or a 4-star with 4 substats at +4). Depending on the rarity, you can get 3-5 substat rolls onto those base 4. So this is achievable along with still getting 2-3 substats towards crit stats. So the numbers shouldn't be unreasonable. On top of which, this is assuming you got the average in the roll (since rolls are variable in how much the roll is worth. See the wiki for more on that if you didn't know).
Of course these are endgame comparisons, as Albedo, the Harbinger of Dawn and the artifacts are maxed out. So do keep that in mind. Play with the following if you want to tweak the stats to exactly what you personally have if you would like.....
And here is Kleeful's Albedo Albacus used to make this shiny chart (saved me from doing all the math, which I admitadly already was halfway done with myself than found this..... so scrapped all that work and made my life easier. Thanks Kleeful (I mean it....).
  • 4-piece Archaic Petra: This allows him for a full use of a 5-star set for those extra stat rolls. Geo DMG boost that helps him. As well as the occasional "Oh, I see a crystal of my carries element", swap to Albedo, grab it for the boost, then swap back. The damage from Albedo himself is the weakest of the combinations, but not by much and it can provide a good boost to your carry if you use it well. This set should only be used if your Carry is of the Pyro/Electro/Hydro/Cryo variety, as they are the only ones that can benefit from the Petra's bonus.
  • 2-piece Archaic Petra with 2-piece Defender's Will. This set allows for the hardest hitting E's. It may force you to have two 4-star artifacts (preferably in the Flower and Feather slots, so as not to affect his E's damage), but it will probably be the favored set by most. This set should generally be taken by those with a Geo or Anemo Carry (or by players that don't want to have to think about making Albedo pick up crystals).
Because this is the Skill-Idiot build, no other sets really need be considered. Noblesse is nice for his burst, but it doesn't help his blossoms at all. Unless your rolls are perfect to take advantage of having 2 more on each of those 5-stars (that defenders was forced to be 4-star on), the damage difference might not make up enough.
Plus, again, this guide is an E focused build. But it's nice to see the comparison.....
For main stats, you want: DEF% / Geo% / Crit Stats (whichever is needed more).
On Substats, go for: Crit Stats > DEF% > Flat DEF.
If you are making him a BurstBot, Krush SG on youtube has tested and Noblesse does boost his Q's extra blossom's damage, so that is an option as well if you decide to do a different build and focus on that. This option pulls away from either support from a full Petra or takes away from a bonus that would further boost his E. With this build you also are not focusing on ATK stats, so this boost to his Q through Noblesse will not be as big as with other characters.
Added Bonus: With math done in another thread, we find that Defender's vs Gambler's 2-piece is almost exactly the same, leading only to generally a 1% difference in Defender's favor (I honestly thought it would be neck and neck with Gambler's ahead by a little, but ah well). So for E, it doesn't matter which you use. However if you have his c2, then Defender's wins by a long shot, as it affects his Q, while Gambler's does not.

Constellations

You don't need them at all for the Skill-Idiot build, but here are the thoughts on them anyway.
  • c1 isn't worth much in this build by itself.
  • c2 is probably his best constellation and gives meaning to his c1 , boo, see note below.....
  • c3 is really nice to further boost your Blossom's power
  • c6 is nice, but not worth it.
Didn't really have comments on c4, which does nothing for this build.
Or c5, which is a pure Burst boost, so again, nothing for this build.
In other words, if you're going for Constellations: c3 > c6 > c2 and the other's are not worth thinking about.

NOTE, it seems his c2 is just worded stupidly poorly and it only affects his Q. IT DOES NOTHING FOR HIS E.

So now it is worth as much to this build as c1 is..... not a lot. c1 and c2 do work well together and with the DEF, again it will help since you will pop out some Q's, but that's not the main focus of this build.
Further note from testing his c1. From what I can tell, it does not generate energy unless Albedo is on the field. Thus this is purely a carry constellation and will have no benefit to this build.
Further note on the further note....., I have been getting mixed notes on the c1. Some have agreed that it doesn't work off field and a couple have said that it does. I guess it needs further testing. For now though, I'm going to play it safe in saying that it doesn't. Since if it does, that's always a good thing, but it would be terrible to say it does work when it doesn't, only to let one down....
Personally, I feel that
  • If you're at c0, it's not worth rolling for c1, as it won't help this build.
  • If you're at c1 already, roll for c2 so that his Q does better damage with this DEF build.
  • If you're at c2 and really want to maximize his E, roll for that c3. It is, in my opinion his best constellation for this build.
  • If you're at c3, it's not worth rolling more, as the next two constellations are just.... eh.......
  • If for some silly reason you're at c5, definitely just finish him off for that c6 as 17% DMG boost is reaaaally nice and super easy to maintain shields for the boost because of his E. But this is super whale territory. Though if again, you're already got him to c5, you're almost there, so just finish it.......
Thankfully, in general, Albedo doesn't need his constellations. Especially for an E build.

Talent Order

Being a Skill-Idiot build:
  • E is obviously most important. It's what makes Albedo who he is.
  • Q is there more as a just because, if he's doing any damage himself, this is where it's from.
  • Normals/Charged doesn't really need to be leveled at all, you're not using his attacks in this build and they're just okay. He can do normal>charged>walk cancel if you were to make him a carry for some reason. But again, that's not for this build.
There we go, hope that helps some people with their Albedo Skill-Idiot Builds.

He's essentially a Geo Fischl without offensive reactions.

In terms of how he works and how one would normally use him.
Of course if you want to make him a Burst-Bot or turn him into a Carry, those are other build options as well, just not really covered here.

Do note that his E construct doesn't work in the same places as any other character's construct.

Such as GeoMC's Meteors, Ningguang's Screens and Zhongli's Pillars.
This makes this style of build for Albedo kind of worthless on these bosses.
Guessing that miHoYo was afraid that people would mess up the A.I. of the boss with odd placements.
So Oceanid is right out. Childe can instant break it, but you can play it right by summoning it far enough away so that the boss is right at the edge to make use of it a little. Same can be done on some of the other ones too.
Just note that this is this build's second biggest weakness.

With the biggest weakness for this build being that he cannot use his blossoms to break shields.

This is odd for a Geo character, which are know for being able to do so....
But you should have 3 other party members who can break shields, so that shouldn't be a problem in the end (hopefully).
Extra note, the Monster Hunter Math Guys (Jinx and Tuner) have found that:
  • Albedo's Energy Particle Generation is random. They only did a bit over a half an hour of testing yesterday on it, but just like with Zhongli, it is inconsistant. Super sad on that part.
  • The extra blossoms on his Q cast are can also be random (see new note below). You can at most hit 2-3 of those extra hits on a single enemy (and that's talking large enemies like Ruin Guards). So NO, you will not be getting all 7 hits on the enemy and more than likely, even on large enemies, you'll only get one extra blossom to hit. The 2-3 is if you're really lucky. This makes these extra blossoms only amazing if there is a large group of spread out enemies, so that each blossom has a chance to hit something.
They liked to comment that Albedo is a gacha filled character (calling the random things he does that). Gacha particle generation and Gacha bonus damage on Q.
They are going to be doing extra testing on him though to see if they an find anything they missed. However they did have some instances where they only got one particle in 10s, which is terrible. To sometimes having 4 particles in 10s, which is great. But because again it is so random, it's hard to plan on it.
Update on MHMG's thoughts on Albedo: In their final conclusion (above is their initial thoughts), they think that he's a really good support and probably the most "balanced 5-star" in the game. Not doing anything amazing, but not doing anything to terrible either. They still think his energy generation is pretty bad (60% chance or so to get a particle on a blossom), but the damage he offers makes up for that. That and he can easily be slotted into any team. They do not think he is a "must pull" character because of that (which they only deem towards characters like Venti and Diluc for 5-stars). But again, they do think he is a good character none the less.
New Note: As shown by redditor CCCchryse in their thread here, ONE fatal blossom is targeted on an enemy. Meaning if there are 7 enemies, every single one of the Fatal Blossoms will hit something guaranteed. It is when there are less enemies, especially 1 or 2, that you start getting RNG. So against one enemy, 1 will guarantee to hit and the other 6 then become random.
This also means that Venti (and to a lesser extent Sucrose and the AnemoMC) is great for gathering enemies in one spot, then casting his burst so that all those AoE Fatal Blossoms bloom in the same area to maximize his damage.
Extra extra note.
From the above, I highly agree with the redditior CCCchryse, who mentions that Ningguang is amazing with him.
  • Ningguang as the main carry, she a single target DPS queen.
  • Albedo offers her much wanted AoE to everything she does with his E.
  • Albedo's Q we now know helps clear groups. (More so if you have c2 with this build, since you'll have a DEF focus.)
  • Ningguang is essentially already self sufficient in her Energy Generation, meaning you don't have to worry about the randomness in Albedo's Particles. They'll be more of a bonus instead of trying to plan around it.
  • Geo Resonance of course (when 1.3 eventually comes, this will be extra nice).
Extra extra extra note (wooo.... how many more of these will there be?).
Interresting thing to note on his E.

Albedo's E snapshots stats on cast.

This was first found out with the Harbinger of Dawn. If he casts E while above 90% HP, the E has the boosted Crit Rate. And if he takes damage to below that while his E is still up, it still has said Crit Rate. Giving you time to heal yourself up before you cast E again. Vice versa, if you are below 90%, cast E and then heal up above it, the E will still not have the crit rate boost.
This however does not work for the Geo Resonance boost. It is the only thing that sadly does not snapshot....
Of course, make sure you're topped up on HP before casting E if you're using Harbinger of Dawn.
submitted by blackkat101 to Genshin_Impact [link] [comments]

Warsim 0.8.2.9 (The TJ Bugsmash Update, 330 features)

Hey Everyone,
So this update has come about while I've been planning the combat stuff, I've been given an ungodly amount of bug reports by a diligent Warsim community member known as TJtheSoundBoard and u/TheSoundBoard on reddit. Getting the bugs sorted is always important so I've been trawling through them and caught/added new things along the way. I hope you guys like it!
TERRAFORMER'S TROVE (4 features)
TJ made a suggestion that terraforming should have a chance to reveal loot, now you can get all sorts of stuff.
ENLISTING SONS ENCOUNTER (11 features)
There are several variants for the 'Sons for hire' type encounter in the throne room, after ending up here due to a bug report by TJ I ended up expanding the reactions to be unique depending on the variant.
MUSHROOM TRIP IMPROVEMENTS (13 features)
I've tried to expand these trips a little bit, some extra encounters and some polish on the ones currently there.
NAIRO'S PARTY EXPANDED (6 features)
Just a few new additions to the best houseparty in Darkdale
BLACKMARKET SLAVERY (6 features)
TJ mentioned that when banning slavery in the Blackmarket, the previously enslaved people seemingly evapourate... now they are accounted for, and the system in-general has been expanded.
THE GAMBLER RETURNS (4 features)
A lot of people were asking for more follow up throne room encounters that progress over time, while testing I found a good candidate for this, giving a gambling man a small sum of gold. Now there are several potential things that could happen if the gambler gets lucky!
ORB SELLER NOW BUYER (5 features)
TJ mentioned that the Blackmarket orb seller should be able to also buy orbs, I've given him a little overhaul to fit with this, he sells them for 10k but buys them for 5k.
DARKDALE TAX CHANGES (2 features)
TJ rightfully pointed out that as Darkdales ruler, removing a few of the smaller local businesses should have some effect... so now it does.
SLEEPY'S STALL (10 features)
A homage to a good friend, find this strange new character in Darkdale's market district!
A NEW CHEAT (1 features)
A hillarious suggestion that I had to put in.
NEW NAME PREFIXES (31 features)
A heap of new character name suffixes inspired mostly by a member of the Warsim discord with the name Titan of War, now we've got all the titans.
NEW CHARACTER NAMES (3 features)
A handful of new possible names thanks to Warsim Patreon supporter Joe! Thank you a bunch for the support :)
CAVE GNOME VISITORS (2 features)
TJ suggested that the hirable throne room gnome insult entertainers should be different if you've discovered the cave gnomes, it's a good idea and now it's in!
THRONE ROOM MUSICIAN CHANGES (3 features)
After a suggestion of having the hirable entertainers from the arrange entertainment section of the throne room refuse to come if your relation to the musicians guild is too low, I've decided to expand the idea to include an opposite effect if you have a really high relation.
GOLD INDICATION (65 features)
There are still areas where you spend gold that it isn't clear how much you have, this is another attempt at sorting that out AND MY GOD trawling the throne room encounters was a pain.
BUGFIXES (140 features)
Well... this is one of the meatiest bugfix sections I've had in recent memory... thanks a lot TJ!
EVERYTHING ELSE (24 features)
Everything I couldn't fit in other sections is now here, quite a few changes, tweaks, and additions!
SCREENSHOTS
WHAT'S NEXT
Well, I'm still in the early phases of the combat update planning and have some remnant bug reports to also work through so I'll keep trudging forward. Thank you everyone for the continued support and to those sharing ideas and reporting bugs, it's all helpful.
Cheers
Huw
submitted by Huw2k8 to WarsimRpg [link] [comments]

After episode 33, I really feel like we need to address the Gacha Situation seriously

This is gonna be a really long, rambling post about gacha, gambling, addiction, psychology and ethics. If you want the TL;DR, here it is: Joey and Garnt are at the very least irresponsible influencers, and at the very worst they might have a serious addiction that stems from a low dopamine life-style.
We all most likely watched the episode and know what happened and what was talked by who, but for further context, if you are unaware of anything, even after the memes, on the last episode of Trash Taste Podcast, specifically in the last 40 minutes of it, the Boys discussed (and argued) about the gacha game scene and gambling addiction. You can check it out on the sticky post on the top of the subreddit front page.
To cut it short, Connor argued that gacha games are just as if not more dangerous than actual gambling, specifically for a few reasons. First, it is a game of no return. In real life gambling, you can (fleetingly) get real money back from it, and even make a considerable profit. Gacha games simulate the act of gambling while offering no significant reward or value other than a measle amount of dopamine and a cute character to play with. Secondly, the game is marketed towards older kids, teenagers and young adults on an age range of 12-25 years old, an age group where most individuals are either not mature enough to manage their money safely or even financially independent at all, with most people in this range not even being active members of society yet. Furthermore, the gacha-gambling model is largely unregulated and unsupervised by authority figures, be it responsible adults, laws or any other regulating institution.
To this, Garnt (largely) and Joey (in a lesser but still significant way) responded that, while they agree no one should be able or willing to spend such large amounts in these games, they do not pose significant harm to most people, and even further, can present justifiable value enough to be acceptable in their current forms, with minor changes. At one point, Joey expressed the idea that if these games made it difficult for him to spend money, he would mostly just not play them at all rather than go free-to-play. Garnt attempted to defend the idea that spending on these games was not necessary and going the F2P route was not only possible, but easy. He himself, however, admitted to that not being the case with him.
This is the thick and short of it. Now let me get into the main argument this post is attempting to make.
Connor's position along the entire discussion was entirely and utterly reasonable, and not only that, but even after being soft-gaslighted into being less harsh on his stance, he still was the only one willing to take the problem seriously at all.
Garnt and Joey, kn the other hand, began the discussion with an ironic and memey tone, not taking it at all seriously. When Connor's stance didn't change and his points began hitting a little too close to home, that's when they got defensive of their point and tried to appeal to various fallacious arguments and unbelievable takes. Most notably, Garnt defended that "If you have a problem with gambling or if you have poor self-control, you just should not be playing Gacha Games", which beyond being obvious, is a bonkers thing to say. It would be akin to saying "if you feel depressed or suicidal often, you should just ask for help and not kill yourself" or "if you have a drug problem, maybe don't go buy drugs". It is a statement that hides behind it's obvious correctness to take away attention from the fact that this adds nothing of value at all to the discussion,nor does it make for a suitable defense of the system that gacha ganes operate in.
The first big problem with this entire thing is that the three of them, both in the podcast and with their individual channels, have a great influencing power. Having your opinion, no matter who you are, broadcast to over a few hundred thousand people world-wide is bound to influence or resonate with some of the audience. When the person in question is a respected figure, speaking to an audience of admirers or fans, most of which at a young age, and within a subject matter of interest to the audience, the influence rate will grow even bigger. In this midst, there is statistically no way at least a handful of people didn't watch this episode and felt like they had their actions justified. Add to this that the gacha community at large is either aware but indifferent to the similarities it has to gambling, or straight up defensive of the entire model, and you have a pretty dangerous mixture of things here.
The second issue I see and hope to convey on this matter is that both Garnt and Joey seem unaware of just how scummy and messed up the tactics behind gacha games are. It's not just rate manipulation and constant advertising. The entire development process is centered around creating the perfect space for you to spend copious amounts of money without feeling that you really spent them. It goes so much deeper than just making cute girls to sell you. From the game page on the app store you get it from to the main menu, to the game design, to the in-game systems, to the rates, to the promotions, to the update cycle, to the end game, to the daily challenges, EVERY LITTLE ASPECT of it is engineered to rewire your bain into believing that it's not that bad to spend, and having the desire to do so more often than you reasonably would.
This is a very important one, amd Connor briefly touched on it in his rant. Cassinos, actual gambling places, build and thought to make you spend and lose, are like a glass door compared to the five inch lead wall that is the gacha strategy. They show you the rates at all times. They offer you the option to set yourself a limit. They make you aware that you are spending money, they cap the age at a minimum of 21, they have a lot of systems in place to control bad spenders. Of course, most of those came from law and regulations, but even before that, back in the 18th amd 19th centuries, no normal adult would advocate or defend that 12 to 18 year olds should be able to gamble real money into pieces of paper or cardboard cutouts. So imagine thinking, for even a moment, that what gacha games do is even close to okay. It is not, by any measure, morally, ethically or lawfully, okay.
But it gets worse. Way worse. Here is where I began actually worrying about the boys, in particular Joey and Garnt, the latter most of all.
They seem to actually believe that the above exposed is somehow justifiable based on little doses of dopamine, memories and the abstract idea of "the experience" you get. They compare spending ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS on a game to get TWO DIMENSIONAL IMAGINARY GIRLS to a night out with friends where you spend a hundred dollars in food or drinks.
What the actual f*ck.
This is not just bad. It's really, really bad. It's unreasonably and unbelievably absurd. It nearly collapses the entire concept of reality from just how bad a take this is.
No. No, no, no. NO. In no way, in no conceivable theoretical way, one of those things is comparable to the other. Never. This is the type of thing that depressed people tell themselves to justify self destructive behavior. Spending copious amounts of disposable income into games just to get "a daily dose lf dopamine" going is insane. Just for reference, you can get dopamine for free by doing any of the following:
Exercising
Finishing a task-list
Cleaning your room
Working on a passion project
Playing any sport, specially with friends
Going for a walk with you pet
Having a conversation with a friend or significant other
Having a good meal
Waking up from a good nap
Watching a fun movie
Traveling
Hiking
Riding a bike
Radical sports
Reading a good book
Seeing a long-time relative or friend you missed for a long time
Getting a hug
Having sex
Sleeping cuddled with you SO
Holding hands
Kissing
Watching the sun set/rise
Going to the beach
Camping
Playing an actual good videogame that isn't f*cking Genshin or FGO
This is not an exhaustive list. It's literally just things I thought off the top of my head while writing this. Some of those activities require some money to do, and some are impossible during the pandemic. But most of them are free/cheap and easy to do at home or with little to no contact with anyone.
If getting a good pull in a lootbox virtual casino is the best way you can think of to get any dopamine release, or if that release is so significant to you as to justify spending more money than some people make in a week, then I'm sorry, but you have a serious problem. I mean it. I know the Boys can do most or all of those things listed up there and much more. I know for a fact they are not in a situation of loneliness, vulnerability or isolation, even in the current world situation. So why is it that Garnt thinks gambling is a good solution for boredom in the quarentine? Or why did Joey insinuate that making it harder for him to spend money would just make him drop the game?
And if these two, that as I said are in a very privileged spot of having easy access to healthy ways to produce dopamine and conquer isolation, are having this kind of relationship with these games, what's to say of people around the world, including many of their listeners/viewers, who either live alone and/or have no perspective of a successful career with easy access to basically limitless disposable income like they do? What's to say of the teenagers who spend all night up playing games, watching anime, jerking off and stealing their parents' credit card to buy pulls? What's to say of the depressed university students who have a shitload of debt thrown at them and live an isolated, virtual life right now? What about them?
Joey and Garnt might not have any problem controlling themselves, or have enough money to waste such that a thousand dollars into gachas doesn't feel unreasonable, no matter how actually unreasonable it is. But they are either ignorant of the actual problem, or (and I sure hope I'm completely off on this one) completely unemphatic to their struggles. Because "Just don't play" is not a thing someone with empathy for the gambling addicts would say. Connor was deadass on this one.
And that leads us to the final nail in this horrific, goldplated coffin. The memes.
Yes, the memes.
There are so many memes. Garnt mentioned that "no one memes on the guys going bankrupt" while doing just that for half an hour. The entire gacha culture is basically a serious sociological and psychological problem deep-rooted into the heart of the zoomer generation. And yet it wears a mask mad e of memes, that hides the actual problem under a nearly impenetrable layer of irony, self-pity and depressive jokes. But the subject is not that funny under the magnified lens of a closer look.
The easygoing demeanor with which gacha addicts and casual underaged gamblers treat the entire thing is so light on the mood, so soft on the eyes, that you may just forget that those people might be ruining their lives. It's not a joke. It should not be treated like one. The meme culture around gacha fames has created more gambling addicts among 15 and 16 year olds than any illegal casino would ever dream of. These young people are just laughing away ridiculous sums of money for a teenager to spend, and feeling none of it until it is too late to go back and give up.
I am not trying to guilty trip any of the Boyys here, nor am I accusing them of being apologetic of underage gambling. I'm just trying to put this entire thing under a serious light. Because it needs someone to do so. This post comes from a place of worry and love, not one of disrespect or accusations. I simply want the Boys to look at this in a responsible way.
I might be talking to the walls here. I might really be just shouting in the vacuum. But if I can try to make my voice be listened to, I will. Because I must. If you read all the way down to here, I have two more things to say.
One is: please, do not let the monetization model these games operate in get to you. If you've spent any amount of money on them and feel tempted to continue, I insist you don't. If you have only ever played them without spending, and are still having fun, you're free to do so, but tread carefully.
And the other is: gacha mechanics can ruin much more beyond your financial wisdom. They are actively harmful to the games industry as a whole. Instead of making good games out of passion, these developers are being led to create mediocre games out of greed from the higher ups. If gou care about gaming at all, or if you just give a shit about an industry many people love, I request that you understand why gacha games are a bad sign, and that you spread that awareness, if you can. This is a really important subject to me and I think ut should be to other gamers as well.
Thank you for reading. Have a great day. Save your money.
P.S.: Garnt, Joey and Connor. If you guys read this, I love you and what you do. I listen to this podcast almost religiously, and I really enjoy all of it. Please, take care of yourselves and have a great 2021. Peace. (This is a shot in the dark, the chances of them reading this are so low I feel almost stupid. But hey, I tried huh?)
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Controversial: If you complain that the internet is ruining magic, you’re just not all that good.

I know this is going to upset a lot of people off. But I mean this post as a wake-up call. Hear out my argument. If you still disagree, please comment! I love the discussion. Let’s just keep it in good faith.
When I hear complaints about the internet ruining magic, I notice that the complaints almost always stem from the issue of exposure. Although exposure is a genuine problem, it is not nearly as problematic as complainants like to assert. In my experience, exposure only effects a performance when the audience knows what you are doing. In this I mean that the audience knows that you are about to do a double lift, or about to do a tilt, etc. In all other cases, it seems to me that exposure does not actually impact a performance at all! Consider the following example:
A while back, I was performing at a party (pre-Covid). Sometimes I am asked what the hardest thing I can do is, and I show the audience Undertow. First I will show it in the context of a color change, and then I’ll turn my back to them and do it again so they can see exactly what I’m doing. I openly and willingly expose the entirety of the move. I explain the history of the move, and why it is such a milestone for card magicians to be able to consistently perform Undertow (if you don’t know, it is one of the most difficult card moves to pull off in performance. The angles are insane to learn how to manage and the move itself feels counterintuitive). However. As soon as I finish explaining the move, and it’s history, I go into a trick that USES THE EXACT SAME TECHNIQUE. I have never heard a spectator say “hey didn’t you just do that like a minute ago?” It always seems like the spectators are just as blown away as they would have been had they not seen the exposure.
So why is this? Why am I able to expose a move, and then immediately blow their minds with it five seconds later? The context has changed. When an audience member sees a trick or sleight in an exposed way, they only recognize that sleight or trick in the context that I exposed it. As soon as I go back to “normal performance mode” the context changes. I am more natural. I’m not mechanical. And the audience doesn’t recognize that the exact same move they learned a moment ago is about to make their brains hurt.
Here is another example.
I only know so many effects. But I love to perform for my family and friends. I’ve shown my family and friends the same thing so many times that they’ve caught me flash just about in every way possible with every sleight I know. Yet when I nail an effect they’re still floored.
Why? It seems like my family and friends shouldn’t be astonished or amazed when they see an effect that they know the ins and outs of. They should know what’s going on. Magic is essentially the creation of a paradox; knowing how an effect works should relieve the paradox and result in the loss of that “magical” feeling pit spectators get. So why does my family still get floored by things that they know? The context has changed. In the past when I messed up and flashed, or even explained the trick to them, I was a worse magician. I couldn’t do the sleights quite as well. My presentation kinda sucked. The effect wasn’t refined. But when I show it to them now, all those things have changed. The presentation is better. My sleights are posed in a way that they don’t feel like anything is happening (invisibility is a myth, search for making your magic feel like nothing is happening). Thus, they don’t recognize that something is happening right under their noses THAT THEY ALREADY HAVE LEARNED.
This post is already long and I could go into so much more detail about the theory behind this, but I don’t want to make it THAT long. So I will leave off with my suggestions for the complainants.
  1. Make your magic FEEL as if nothing is happening. It doesn’t matter if your sleights are technically invisible. If a spectator feels like something is happening that shouldn’t be, the effect is ruined. A good example is the midnight shift. Any magician will say that your midnight shift looks great if they don’t see a flash. By this is because magicians know what a midnight shift “should” look like. I promise you. Every. Single. Spectator. Is suspicious of your actions as SOON as you turn your body to do the move. Even if they don’t SEE something, they know something had happened.
  2. Work on your sleight of hand. The more comfortable with the sleights you use most often, it is easier to accomplish 1.
  3. Get more creative with your magic. Everyone’s seen the Rubik’s cube to m&m’s. Most have probably worked out how it’s done. Try using the same gimmicks for other applications. Or change the context in which the magic is done. The aforementioned effect is always done on social media in the exact same way. Change the context so your audience doesn’t have a reason to expect you to do something they’ve already seen and learned. We all know black art and flap cards. But I bet that y’all were fooled the first time you saw Shin’s 52 shades of red act.
  4. Continue to innovate your magic. Wayyy too many magicians out there performing the same stuff they did in the 80’s without any changes. If something is perfect, don’t change it. But none of your effects are perfect and they never will be. So you shouldn’t have to worry about that clause. I consider myself pretty good at sleight of hand, but the other day I saw Daniel Madison do a top shot into gamblers cop. Made me remember that there’s still ways to innovate.
Alright. I’ll leave it at that for now. I’m sure there will be lots of contention in the comments so I will do my best to reply thoroughly. I didn’t get to discuss ALL my points, because that would result in a legit essay. But I think this post summarizes my view decently. Let me know what y’all think!
Best, Troy
submitted by totally_interesting to Magic [link] [comments]

Unleashed pt. 47

This chapter was a labour of love, heists are hard. Big thanks to u/eruwenn for helping tidy up this bag of snakes.
First / Prev / Next
 
 
“Ranjaz K’Lua, you thieving scumbag!” the Kah’Ree in the purple suit exclaimed loudly as he spotted them across the busy room. “As I live and skral, I never thought you would have the Jolos show your face here again!”
Two J’Rami in suits detached themselves from the lobby wall, walking towards the Kittran and his friends. “Alfor, my old friend!” Ranjaz smiled broadly. “No need for the welcoming party, I’ve got your credits” —he gestured to Cygna— “and a sweetener, for all the trouble I caused last time.”
Alfor paused, lecherous eyes assessing the Fae’Dan. “You know I have a thing for purple.” He chuckled at his own joke and waved the guards back to their posts. “How about we have a drink, and discuss your forgiveness.” He pointed to Thor and Eruwenn. “Brought your own security, or are these Gal. Fed. goons? Everyone knows about your probation.”
The Kittran gave a broad grin. “I got a Tulseria-damned pardon, a new ship and a very lucrative opportunity.”
The Kah’Ree smiled. “How’d a thieving cat like you get a pardon?” He gave Ranjaz an appraising look up and down. “Oh? Now, let me guess, you need something from me and my brother?”
Ranjaz fired his finger guns. “You were always the smart one Alfor, that’s why you run the casino floor.” The Kittran stepped in close. “The item, do you still have it?”
Alfor tilted his head back and away from Ranjaz. “Your little guarantee?” He looked back down at Ranjaz. “We have it somewhere safe. Had some unusual people come by after you got caught. Asked a lot of questions. Made a lot of threats.” His face contorted in anger. “We got audited thanks to you.”
The Kittran smiled. “If only they knew you better, they could have simply paid you for the information.”
“We give nothing for free.” The Kah’Ree gave a sinister smile. “House rule.”
Ranjaz walked forward to put his his arm on Alfor’s back. “Let’s go see your brother. Have a few drinks, maybe gamble a little, and discuss our future riches.”
 
 
Ripley stood in the shadows of the staff shuttle bay, watching as the numerous employees of assorted races came and went. Loud laughter caught her attention, and a very strangely dressed Niham broke away from a small group and walked towards her. Ripley tried to maintain her low profile as the scantily clad female strutted towards her in long black boots with pointed heels that clacked loudly with every step.
Deliberately avoiding eye contact the Awakened tried to will herself into the wall but it was too late and a voice called out to her. “Hey Darling! You must be the one I’m looking for.”
Ripley shook her head. The Kittran had said the contact was an Ashi pirate captain, a master gambler and expert in procuring the unusual. “I don’t-”
“Listen cutie,” she interrupted, “you’re the one lurking in dark corners drawing attention to yourself. I’ve got your security card. You tell that fluffy little stud he owes me. And more than a bottle of Fae’Dan wine and a good time, if you know what I mean.” She held up the card between her fingers, just a little out of Ripley’s reach.
The Awakened considered the phrase ‘fluffy little stud’ and decided that, despite her hopes, this was probably her contact. “You’re Captain Whiplash?”
The Ashi laughed genuinely, the jiggling of tightly squeezed breasts bursting at shiny black restraints making Ripley nervous. “Oh, Darling! Only my little pets call me that! You may call me Sho’Na.”
Ripley was momentarily confused. “So, you aren’t a pirate captain?”
“I’m anything they pay me to be.” She smiled at the silver-haired woman's naivety. “You really are new to this.”
Ripley, caught off guard, simply nodded, then replied, “I’m a quick learner.”
“Good for you, Darling.” Sho’Na handed over the card. “Just make sure you get paid up front, and don’t use your real name with clients. Ruins the mystique.”
Ripley was unsure of what was being said. Turning the card over in her hands she saw that the holo-image on the front was of a male Arkellian. “This isn’t me?”
“Honey, I was given half a cycle to get you a level three security card. Just be glad it’s a biped.” Sho’Na looked Ripley up and down. “Our mutual acquaintance told me you were some sort of master of disguise who could even trick Selva Blaster.”
Ripley paused, then smiled. Her appearance had become such an integral part of her identity she had forgotten that it was entirely optional. “It won’t be a problem.” She looked at the card again. “Unless the owner comes looking for it.”
Sho’Na gave another bosom-trembling laugh that threatened to spill out at any moment. “Oh, don’t worry, he’s tied up at the moment.”
The Awakened considered the risk. “Hmmm, but for how long?”
The few strips of shiny black material that comprised Sho’Na’s revealing outfit strained under her amusement. “Don’t you worry, Darling. He paid for the whole night.”
 
 
Eruwenn had reassessed her opinion of Ranjaz many times since meeting him. The criminal. The loyal friend. The lazy trouble-maker. All were true, but now she was seeing something new. He sat opposite Toran, the brother of Alfor, in a game of dalcho she wished she could have taken part in, but was equally glad she did not.
At first she had thought the Kittran was outmatched, a few reckless mistakes costing him dearly as the Kah’Ree deftly selected his tiles. Toran was clearly a seasoned gambler, using a blend of the Remee Le’Bow Gambit and the Kowals’Kee Analysis she hadn’t seen before. It seemed to be dismantling Ranjaz’s tiles before he could even prepare his cards. A few fortunate dice rolls and he had taken a strong lead from the outset. The Kittran appeared desperate, playing any tile available to try and slow the defeat.
It had all been a ruse, she saw it; Ranjaz had saved his best tiles and carefully thrown hands to manipulate the cards. In just a few rounds he would be able to dominate the board and raise the stakes, recouping his losses and changing the course of the game entirely. She had encountered few players who could manipulate the game so deftly, using memory and layers of strategy to corner their opponent. It was magnificent.
Eruwenn couldn’t tear her eyes from the board as she stood beside Thor. The Awakened had shown no interest in the game, studiously watching the opposite door as Toran’s staff came in and out. When a waiter entered and began preparing drinks at the small private bar in the executive gambling room, Thor coughed. It was a strange thing for an Awakened to do, and Eruwenn finally looked up from the table. “Are you ok?”
Thor nodded. By the time he had looked towards her, she had returned her attention completely to the game. “You don’t seem concerned about your friend?” he asked.
The Anatidae watched as Ranjaz used a blind double feint, and the sheer audacity of such a move made her swallow hard. She didn’t look back to Thor, but mumbled a response. “I’m very confident in her abilities.”
The waiter was methodically placing drinks by each of the players, but when they stood behind Ranjaz the Kittran surged to his feet, shouting, “Hey! No cheating Toran! Getting your waiter to look over my shoulder? That’s a dirty move I’d expect from your brother!”
Thor had reacted faster than Eruwenn, pinning the arms of the Arkellian waiter in a vice-like bear hug. Toran slowly stood. He was big, heavily muscled, and the veins on his neck bulged as his anger rose. “Don’t accuse me in my own place.” He cracked his knuckles and glowered down at Ranjaz. “I run a straight game.”
Fearlessly the Kittran walked right up to the Kah’Ree and stared up into his face from waist height. “Don’t try and intimidate me, you son of a Vogel.” Ranjaz puffed out his chest and began pushing the burly casino owner. “Nobody cheats me!”
The blow caught Ranjaz across the cheek and sent him sprawling across the room. Eruwenn winced at the impact, but maintained her composure. Toran laughed. “Watch your tongue or I’ll add it to my collection.” He walked round the table and kicked Ranjaz in the stomach, glaring at Thor and Eruwenn, daring them to act. “Know your place trash. You’re at this table because you put credits up front. You are a dishonest thief, begging for scraps, and cosying up to me any my brother to get your little trinket back.” He returned to his seat. “Why would I need to cheat against the likes of you?”
Ranjaz stood, brushing himself off. “Fine, fine.” He waved a hand and Thor dropped the Arkellian. Ranjaz tapped him on the chest. “My mistake.” He sat down and picked up his cards once more. “You’re right Toran, you run a clean game. I’m just a sore loser.” He shuffled the order of the tiles that were still face down on the table. “To show my sincerity, how about we double the buy for the rest of the game?”
Toran snorted. “Double?” He looked at the Kittran, scrutinising his opponent. The game was already over; he had control of the board and his tiles occupied the three prime positions. Was the thief trying to buy his favour, he wondered? How much was the trinket he wanted truly worth? He decided it was worth testing. “Triple, and I’ll forget you dared touch me.”
The Kittran swallowed hard, his ears flat to his head. Toran momentarily worried he’d pushed for too much but a decision seemed to be reached. “Fine. Triple.” The look of defeat was delicious to the Kah’Ree.
 
 
Cygna had done her part and lured Alfor to a private room away from his security. She had danced, skipped and side-stepped his groping hands so far, maintaining a playfulness that ensured he complied. This sort of thing was not new to her; she had spent time undercover in the past. Fortunately, there had been little call for it since she had joined forces with Eruwenn.
Alfor’s eyes scanned her body once more. “The Kittran has very good taste.” He licked his lips, a small amount of drool escaping and running down his chin. He wiped it on his sleeve. “Now, I brought you somewhere quiet. How about you show me how sweet you can be?”
The Fae’Dan smiled coyly and continued her dancing just out of reach, glancing to the doorway where Alfor’s two guards stood watching her. “With an audience?” She raised her eyebrows expectantly.
With a sly grin he waved the guards out of the room. “Now come here and let me satisfy you like only a Kah’Ree can.” His eyes wandered over her body once more.
Cygna smiled, her own eyes moving from the Kah’Ree’s hands to his shoulders, then up towards his neck. An interesting fact about the Kah’Ree was the thick blood vessels on the side of their neck. They often bulged when a Kah’Ree was angry or excited, like Alfor’s were as he leered at her. She danced closer. Another interesting fact was that their brains were not as efficient as those of other species, hence the requirement for additional blood flow; more oxygen per limited thought.
He leaned forward, his eyes locked to her swaying hips. Cygna turned slowly, and his head tilted to appreciate her assets. The third, lesser known, fact about the Kah’Ree was that an interruption to the blood flow while they were in this excited state caused them to lose consciousness rapidly as their brain burned through the available oxygen. “My eyes are up here.” She smiled as he looked up at her with his head still tilted.
He sneered. “Who ca-”
The Fae’Dan struck the side of his neck with the edge of her hand, targeting the throbbing blood vessel with a powerful blow. The interruption to his brain's oxygen supply worked perfectly and he fell face forward onto the ground at her feet. She let out a sigh of relief and looked down at his unconscious body. “Thank you, that was particularly satisfying.”
She walked over to the door and peeked out, finding the guards standing either side. “He said to order us some drinks.” One of the guards nodded and immediately put his hand to his lapel communicator.
Back inside the room, Cygna used her foot to roll Alfor to his back and began searching his pockets. She came up empty. Her eyes caught a glimmer from his collar and she found a heavy gold chain, at the end of which was his security key. She removed it just as a knock came at the door. A deep voice from the other side called out. “Your drinks, boss.”
The Fae’Dan quickly messed up her hair. Using the back of her hand she smeared her lipstick sideways, and then pulled the strap of her dress down off her shoulder. She opened the door and, to her surprise, was faced with an Arkellian waiter. The bodyguards noted her dishevelled appearance and shared a smirk, and she said, “Oh, I wasn’t expec-”
The waiter pushed the trolley into the room. “Don’t keep the boss waiting, lady.” Before Cygna could reply they were inside and the door closed. “Relax, it’s me.”
Ripley’s voice sounded bizarre coming from the male Arkellian form, and Cygna’s eyes went wide in shock. Her sharp mind quickly adjusted to this new information. Of course the Awakened could change their physical appearance; she had just never seen it. They all seemed quite attached to their chosen human forms. “Neat trick.” She held out Alfor’s key. “Did you get the other one?”
Ripley nodded. “The Kittran played his part well. I didn’t see him take it, and didn’t feel it when he placed it in my pocket. Now that was a neat trick.”
The Fae’Dan smiled. “I think I’ll pass on that dalcho game.”
The Arkellian Ripley smiled. “Probably wise.” Turning, she slipped the key into her pocket and headed back out of the door.
 
 
Ripley entered the elevator to the owner's private offices on the top floor. Thanks to the distractions downstairs, the two large desks in the centre of the room were empty. She walked straight past them to the large leokas painting on the wall and swung it forward. Behind it was a Fae’Dan safe; she took out the two keys and a small homemade device the Kittran had given her.
Attaching the device to the bio-lock and standing before the safe, she elongated her arms to reach both key positions at once. There was more than one reason she was the one chosen for this task. The device beeped twice and small lights above each lock lit up. She simultaneously turned both keys, and there was a satisfying clunk.
She raised an eyebrow. The device had worked. The heavy safe door swung open and she began her search. Ranjaz had been very specific: while there was one item she had to get, she was to grab as much as possible to obscure their true target.
Quickly grabbing as much as she could she retrieved the keys and ran back across the room towards the elevator.
 
 
Cygna hauled Alfor back onto the seat, putting him in a more natural position and messing up his hair. She looked away as she began unbuttoning his clothes, pulling his trousers around his ankles and opening his shirt up to bare his chest. From a secret pocket inside her dress she pulled out a lace thong, setting it on his head like a bandana. She also had a small box which she opened, inside of which was a replica mouth with lipstick that matched her own.
Cygna carefully applied kiss marks all over his exposed skin before popping the fake lips back into the secret pocket. She took the Fae’Dan wine and partially filled two glasses, making sure to take a long drink from one and leave more lipstick marks. The rest of the wine was poured into the ice bucket.
She heard the sound of voices outside the door. The guards were arguing with someone, refusing them entry, but when the name Toran was mentioned it was Ripley who entered, still in uniform but now looking much like her usual self. She smirked at the Kah’Ree in his derobed state. “I can see you had fun.”
The Fae’Dan chuckled. “That’s the idea.” She looked at the Awakened in her true form. “You look… better.”
Ripley cocked her head. “It would be strange if the waiter came back to deliver a message.” She tossed the necklace key to Cygna, who replaced it on Alfor’s neck.
Reclining on the sofa and picking up her glass, Cygna took another long drink. “Get the other one back to Ranjaz quickly. This one won’t be napping much longer.”
The Awakened gave an almost Ranjaz-like grin. “You could always hit him again.” Before the Fae’Dan could reply she had ducked back out of the door. She caught the eye of one of the bodyguards and gave a head tilt back towards the room. “The boss is really enjoying himself!”
As the suited pair chuckled, the larger of the two got a message in his ear piece. “Hey, silver hair.” He grunted. “Boss has an important guest. Meet them in the foyer and bring them to the dalcho room.”
Ripley was relieved – she needed a reason to get into that room. “On my way.”
 
 
Toran was seething as he watched as the Kittran flipped his final tile. Why would he have waited so long to play the Wings of Tulseria tile? His stomach sank, and he couldn’t hold back his anger any longer. “Damn you!”
Ranjaz gave a full-fanged grin. “Looks like my luck turned at just the right moment.”
“Luck!” Toran’s tile snapped between his fingers. Why had he let the damned cat goad him into constantly increasing their bet? The cycle had started with him owing the brothers a million credits plus interest, and now the infuritating Kittran had won nearly forty times that. “Nobody is that lucky.”
“Woah!” Ranjaz held up his hands. “I would never cheat, well... certainly not a second time. After you caught me, I’d be a fool to try.”
“Hmm.” Toran looked at the two behind the Kittran. The big one would be a problem, but the Anatidae looked to be nothing special. “How about I give you back your little trinket and we call it even?”
“My trinket?” Ranjaz shook his head. “I had to convince you it was worth the million I owed. Why would you think I’d trade it for thirty eight million credits? I’ll pay what I owe, take my trinket and my winnings and leave.”
Toran folded his arms and looked across the dalcho board at Ranjaz. “And why would I let you do that?” The atmosphere in the room changed as the two security guards changed their stance. “Transfer the credits back to the house.”
Ranjaz dropped the grin, replacing it with a defiant glare. “What happened to you running a straight game?”
“The game was straight. You won, didn’t you?” He leaned forward, his eyes cold and hard. “You’re just in no position to collect.”
The Kittran was about to argue when the door behind Toran opened. He looked up as Ripley entered, and his eyes widened in shock. She wasn’t alone. “Toran, you bastard! You sold me out!”
“For ten million credits.” Toran stared hard at Ranjaz. “Care to make a better offer?”
Eruwenn’s eyes blazed with anger as the grey-suited Niham pulled up a seat and sat down beside Toran. “Now, now, you lied to me about having the item before. Don’t double cross me.” Sentinel Krast placed his hands together on the table, interlacing his fingers. “I’m not somebody who forgives easily.” He looked directly at Eruwenn. “Isn’t that right, former Councillor? A little far from your new Ambassador position, aren’t you?”
Ripley stood back against the wall. She had no idea who the newcomer was, but this most definitely was not the plan. The golden green Anatidae walked forward to stand behind Ranjaz. “Oh, I had a little vacation time saved up, and decided to spend it with my good friend here.” She placed a hand on the Kittrans shoulder. “And what brings a Sentinel here?”
Krast’s lips curled in what might approximate a smile. “I’m also acquainted with Mr K’Lua. In fact, we go back a very long way.” He turned to look directly at Ranjaz. “Now, return what is mine.”
Toran looked from Ranjaz to Krast. “Yours? You don’t look like the tiara wearing type.”
The Sentinel didn’t turn his head. “Ah, so you hid the data chip inside some shiny bauble. As inventive as ever, Mr K’Lua.” The Niham finally acknowledged Toran by looking at him. “Bring. It. Here.”
The Kah’Ree sucked air through his teeth. “Well, seems like we have something mighty important, and two very interested parties.” He stood and walked to his two security officers, who drew their weapons in unison. “Now then, I believe you” —he nodded to Krast— “offered ten million. How about it Ranjaz, old friend? What’s your counter offer?”
The Kittran had been sitting, silently seething at his double cross being double crossed. He looked at Krast. “Were you the one?”
Toran was surprised at being ignored, but before he could reply Krast answered, “The one?”
Ranjaz’s eyes narrowed, his ears alert, his tail swishing aggressively. “The one who took my friend!” he snarled as he felt Eruwenn’s hand holding him back gently.
Krast’s eyes glittered as he saw the impotent rage in his opponent’s eyes. “Ah, the poor deceased human?” He smiled his mannequin-esque smile. “And if I was?”
Toran snatched a pistol from one of his men and fired a blast at the ceiling. “Your quarrel can wait. Let’s settle our business first and you can kill each other after I’m paid.” He paused, then added, “but, not in my casino. Body disposal costs extra.”
Eruwenn’s hand gripped Ranjaz’s shoulder harder, and he braced himself. In one smooth move she both threw him backwards and to the right, and kicked the dalcho table up and forward into Krast's face. The Sentinel fell backwards as a blast from Toran struck the table, but Eruwenn was already on the move, sidestepping left and ducking forward into a cartwheel. Toran's gun had been following Ranjaz, but as her leg swept down it knocked the weapon from his grip.
Once she stabilized, her fist, already primed with momentum from the cartwheel, struck Toran below the ribs and knocked the wind from him. The guard, whose gun the Kah'Ree had been holding, lunged forward to grab Eruwenn but she simply deflected his hand, pairing his forward momentum with her rising elbow to swiftly render him unconscious.
The second guard had just begun to raise his weapon when a huge fist struck him in his chest, sending him careening backwards into the wall. Thor loomed over him, shaking his head as he retrieved the energy pistol. “Too slow.”
Ripley helped Ranjaz to his feet as Krast pushed the table off his chest. Toran was coughing and struggling to breathe as Ranjaz pressed the retrieved energy pistol to his forehead. “Double cross me?” He dragged the Kah’Ree forward. “I want to see the item, then I’ll pay what I owe.” The two of them awkwardly made their way back towards Krast, so Ranjaz could point the gun in his face. “Then we can talk about your body disposal fee.”
Krast stood, and his phony smile was gone. “You can’t kill me. The Sentinels will tear this place apart, hunt you down and kill you. You think I came alone? My ship is in orbit and waiting for my orders!”
Ranjaz grabbed him by the jacket, pulling him down to his level, and struck him in the face with the butt of the pistol. Thor cooly kept his stolen pistol pointed at Toran and the one conscious guard. By the third blow Krast’s face was bloody, his nose broken and he began to struggle against Ranjaz’s assault.
A muted boom caused everyone present to stop in their tracks. Alarms began to sound and Toran swore loudly. He pulled out his communicator, ignoring Thor’s pistol. “What the hell was that!” He held the device close as he listened. “My office?” He patted his pocket. Finding his key in place, he looked to Ranjaz and then Krast. “Seal the casino! And where is my brother?”
Ripley suddenly understood why the Kittran had told her to leave his device on the safe door. After a brief further moment of shock, which she kept from showing on her face, she realized that she had been carrying an explosive without being told. If they survived, Ranjaz was going to need to explain himself. Thoroughly.
Eruwenn, Thor and Ranjaz had backed away to the opposite side of the room, standing by the door. Krast stood alone, holding his profusely bleeding nose. The opposite door soon opened to reveal scrambling casino security, with Toran and his guard standing nearby.
The unconscious guard was carried out without comment, and the Kah’Ree turned to Ripley. “Why are you still here?” She nodded and slipped out of the door, leaving one less concern for the remaining three. “Alright, which one of your skrolg-licking bastards broke into my private safe?”
Krast spat blood onto the floor, pointing at Ranjaz. “He’s the thief. You and I had a deal.”
The Kittran smirked. “I’m a better thief than blowing up a Tulseria-damned safe. If I wanted to steal it, I would have done just that. I would not have announced my arrival and sat down to a game of dalcho.”
Toran looked between the two of them. “He’s got a point.” One of his men handed him a pistol, and he continued to talk a little distractedly into his communicator. “Well, check everywhere!”
Ranjaz stirred the pot. “He’s the bastard who double crossed me, why would he honour your deal?”
Eruwenn nodded. “A government agent can’t be seen working with criminals.”
Krast's face contorted in rage. “Don’t be a damned fool, Toran!” He pointed at Ranjaz. “This is clearly some convoluted distraction.”
Toran shook his head. “They had the upper hand. You were the one getting your face ruined.”
 
 
Cygna watched nervously as Alfor began to stir. Things were taking a lot longer than expected. Finally, her signal came; it was not as subtle as she had been led to believe. As soon as the explosion went off the two bodyguards quickly came into the room, glancing from Alfor’s sleeping body to her. She staggered forward, wine bottle in hand. “We need more drinkshh!”
The guard ignored her as he saw the condition of his boss. “Not again,” he groaned. “Toran will kill us for letting him get like this.”
The second guard stepped out into the corridor. “I’m not dressing him! Last time he tried to kiss me!”
Cygna paused, not having expected it to go this way. The first bodyguard walked out as well. “He pissed on my new shoes the time before that. I’m not moving him.”
Their communicators went off and their faces became more serious. Bodyguard two spoke first. “Damn it. Toran wants him.”
The first turned to look at the increasingly bewildered Cygna. “You!” He smiled. “You got him undressed. You can dress him.”
Cygna spotted Ripley running down the corridor towards them, causing her confusion to grow further. The Awakened shouted one word. “Sentinels!”
The Fae’Dan’s mind raced. The plan was clearly blown, and they had to get out. Fast. As the guards were now facing Ripley, she took the opportunity to kick one in the back of the knee. He fell forward, and as the second turned he was met with the upward swing of a wine bottle. The first guard discovered first-hand the shocking truth of how hard the knee of an Awakened could be, and both were unconscious by the time they hit the ground.
Cygna smiled at Ripley. "Thanks."
The Awakened gave a swift nod of acknowledgement. “A Sentinel turned up, so Ranjaz set off the diversion he promised. The other brother is busy trying to figure out whether it’s us or the Sentinels robbing him.”
Cygna took on board the new information quickly, knowing she needed to help the others. “I have an idea. Lie over there and look dead.” She ran back into the room, where Alfor was groaning and starting to move. She slipped the chain from his neck and dropped it into the ice bucket, where it sank out of sight below the dark Fae’Dan wine. She began to slowly shake him.
“Huh,” he grumbled, and slowly opened his eyes. “Wha.. what happened?”
Cygna clung to him tightly. “Oh thank goodness! I thought they killed you!”
“Killed?” Alfor’s head was pounding, his memory blurry. “Who-” He caught sight of his downed guards in the open doorway. “What the hell happened?” He began pulling at his clothes, and swiftly checked that his trousers were dry.
“While we were.. You know…” He nodded; he was buttoning up his clothes. He didn’t remember, but he knew. “Some scary men burst into the room and shot you! I was so scared.” She hugged him tight, pressing herself against him.
He put his arm around her. “What men? Be brave, and tell me what happened.”
She looked up at him, trying to make her eyes as big as possible, adding a lip tremble to really sell it. “I don’t know! They wore grey suits. And one of them took your necklace!”
“My necklace.” He clutched at his chest where it should have been. “Damn Sentinels! I told Toran we couldn't trust them!”
He stepped into the corridor, where Ripley lay on the ground with a terrible energy weapon burn on the side of her face. He pulled out his communicator. “Toran.” He instantly got hold of his brother. “I didn’t answer because I was knocked out. Damn Sentinels took my key, killed some of our guys.” He looked around. “Nobody important, just some waiter.” He finally pulled the underwear from his head. “I’ll go to the security room and look at the video.”
He ended the call and turned back to Cygna. “You stay here.”
She smiled. “Sorry, we can’t let you check the security footage.”
“Wha-”
Ripley struck him from behind and he crumpled to the ground, her fake burn melting from her face. The Awakened looked around, rechecking that all was clear. “I think that’s all we can do; we should get out of here. Come with me, my shuttle is in the staff bay.”
 
 
Toran closed his communicator and motioned to a guard. “Search him.”
Eruwenn wished she had some way to capture the look on Krast’s face when the remote detonator was pulled from his pocket. She'd have to hug the light-fingered Kittran later.
The Sentinel grit his teeth. “That’s not mine.”
“Sure, sure,” Toran agreed, while simultaneously shaking his head at the Sentinel. “Looks like you really didn’t come alone.”
Krast was furious, yelling, “I’m telling you-” He broke off when Ranjaz shot him in the leg, falling to the floor.
The Kah’Ree pointed his pistol at the Kittran. “Can’t let you kill a Sentinel in my casino, even if they did just rob me.”
Ranjaz was surprised the Kah’Ree had believed them so easily. “What about us?”
Toran sighed, lowering his weapon. “Take your winnings and get out. If you stole the thing once, I’m sure you can steal it again.”
Eruwenn and Thor both made to leave. Ranjaz paused, knowing he might not get another chance. “And him?”
The Kah’Ree looked at the Sentinel holding his wounded leg. “We’ll send him back to his ship. As much as I hate it, the Sentinels are untouchable.”
Ranjaz raised his pistol. “He took my friend.”
“And we’ll get him back,” Eruwenn said softly. “Then we’ll all deal with him, and the rest of the Sentinels.”
Krast sneered and spat blood once more. “Your human is dead.”
Ranjaz fired.
Krast screamed and grabbed his other leg. “You bastard!”
Toran and his men raised their weapons as the Kah’Ree yelled, “Get the hell out of here!”
Ranjaz turned and followed the others out of the door, but just as it was about to close he poked his head back in. “Oh, one last thing.”
Toran could be seen looking up just as the Kittran fired again, but he ducked out of sight before the true outcome of his shot could be seen. The shrieks of agony, however, followed the trio down the corridor as they broke into a run. Eruwenn spared a glance down at Ranjaz during their retreat. “What did you do?”
The full-fanged grin had never been larger. “Made sure we’ll see him again.”
On the floor of the dalcho room Krast was screaming in agony. He turned over to stare at the closed door. “I’ll kill you! I will hunt you down and kill every last one of you!”
Toran spoke into his communicator. “Tell the Sentinel ship to come get their man. And, bring a doctor. A really good doctor.” He nudged one of his guards and finally let out a chuckle. After all, the Sentinels had just robbed him. “You double-crossing scum always get what you deserve.”
The J’Rami guard raised an eyebrow. “Not sure anyone deserves getting shot in the balls.”
 
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gambler's ruin problem video

Gambler's Ruin Problem - YouTube Finite Math: Markov Chain Example - The Gambler's Ruin ... Gambler's Ruin Problem - YouTube Challenging Problems in Probability: Gambler's Ruin - YouTube

Gambler's Ruin Problem（赌徒破产问题）研究总结 导语. 以下是对“赌徒破产”系列问题的研究总结。通过数学证明，可见“十赌九输”并非虚言。 PS：由于MarkDown不支持数学公式，所以下面问题的证明过程是通过 Daum Equation Editor 来撰写，然后导出图片来展示。 庄家输掉所有筹码的概率. 庄家有n个筹码 We study the gambler’s ruin problem with a general distribution of the payoffs in each game. Assuming the expected value of the payoff distribution is negative, so that eventual ruin occurs with Gambler's Ruin. Let two players each have a finite number of pennies (say, for player one and for player two). Now, flip one of the pennies (from either player), with each player having 50% probability of winning, and transfer a penny from the loser to the winner. Now repeat the process until one player has all the pennies. If the process is repeated indefinitely, the probability that one of The gambler's ruin problem is one of the most important problems in the emergence of probability. The problem has been long considered “solved” from a probabilistic viewpoint. The gambler’s ruin problem is one where a player has a probability p of winning and probability q of losing. For example let’s take a skill game where the player x can beat player y with probability 0.6 by getting closer to target. The game play begins with player x being allotted 5 points and player y allotted 10 points. After each round a player’s points either decrease by one or the problem into the framework of the gambler’s ruin problem: p(a) = P i(N) where N= a+b, i= b. Thus p(a) = 8 <: 1 (q p)b 1 (q p)a+b;if p6= q b a+b; if p= q= 0:5. (7) Examples 1. Ellen bought a share of stock for $10, and it is believed that the stock price moves (day by day) as a simple random walk with p= 0:55. What is the probability that Ellen’s stock reaches the high value of $15 This problem is a classic example of a problem that involves a one-dimensional ran-dom walk. In such a random walk, there is some value - say the number of dollars we have - that can go up or down or stay the same at each step with some probabilities. In this example, we have a random walk in which the value can go up or down by 1 at each step The Gambler’s Ruin Problem. The above formulation of this type of random walk leads to a problem known as the Gambler’s Ruin problem. This problem was introduced in Exercise [exer 11.2.22], but we will give the description of the problem again. A gambler starts with a “stake" of size \(s\). She plays until her capital reaches the value 1 Gambler’s Ruin Problem Consider a gambler who starts with an initial fortune of $1 and then on each successive gamble either wins $1 or loses $1 independent of the past with probabilities p and q = 1−p respectively. Let R n denote the total fortune after the nth gamble. The gambler’s objective is to reach a total 1. Consider the Gambler's Ruin problem for a fair game, that is, for r > 0 and p=q. Let T be the duration of the game. Use Wald's 2nd equation to prove that for this case, the expected duration of the game is 1 ET (x – a)(b − x). 2p = (Notice the "slowing-down factor" i.e. if r +0.) 1 2p in case there is positive holding probability,

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Gambler's Ruin Problem - YouTube

Player M has $1, and Player N has $2. Each play gives one of the players $1 from the other. Player M is enough better than Player N that he wins 2/3 of the p... In this lecture I have discussed the Gambler's Ruin Problem and derived the expression for the probability that the gambler, starting initially with i units ... Finite Math: Markov Chain Example - The Gambler's Ruin.In this video we look at a very common, yet very simple, type of Markov Chain problem: The Gambler's R... Link to Paper on Gambler's Ruin Problem: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14fziAng_3idFOc2rZmOpvzRAHFfPokBd/view?usp=sharingR script: https://drive.google.com...

gambler's ruin problem

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